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NeuroTran® prijevodi poredani kronološki:

[Tue Jul 22 09:27:31 2003]
for a number of products showing a surplus or for which a surplus is threatening at present, no market can be found in Europe, as importing countries can purchase these products cheaper elsewhere
za određeni broj proizvoda koji iskazuju višak ili kojima trenutno prijeti višak, ne može se pronaći tržište u Europi, jer zemlje uvoznice mogu ove proizvode negdje drugdje kupiti jeftinije

[Tue Jul 22 09:29:38 2003]
with regard to other products, the extreme protection of national production in importing countries is hampering the international trade, with the result that prices in these countries are kept at a high level, and consumption becomes restricted
što se tiče ostalih proizvoda, pretjerana zaštita nacionalne proizvodnje u zemljama uvoznicama ometa međunarodnu trgovinu, s posljedicom da se cijene u ovim zemljama održavaju visokoj razini, a potrošnja postaje ograničena

[Tue Jul 22 09:32:08 2003]
The admittance of larger quantities for importation would mean a considerable contribution to an improved, because cheaper, supply in these importing countries
Primanje većih količina za uvoz bi značilo znatan doprinos poboljšanim, tj. jeftinijim, zalihama u tim zemljama uvoznicama

[Tue Jul 22 09:38:15 2003]
The movement of goods in Europe is therefore held up, on the one hand because the products are too expensive, and on the other hand because they are considered to be too cheap.
Promet dobara u Europi se stoga zadržava, s jedne strane zato što su proizvodi preskupi, a s druge strane zato što se smatra da su prejeftini.

[Tue Jul 22 09:38:15 2003]
This stagnation intensifies the uncertainty of profits to farmers, and impedes the application of the technical improvements essential to an increase in productivity
Ova stagnacija pojačava nesigurnost zarade poljoprivrednika, i ometa primjenu tehničkih poboljšanja neophodnih za povećanje učinkovitosti

[Tue Jul 22 09:43:21 2003]
Without inter-European measures it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to alter the situation described above.
Bez intereuropskih mjera bit će vrlo teško, ako ne i nemoguće, promijeniti gore opisano stanje.

[Tue Jul 22 09:45:52 2003]
These measures will have to aim at the greatest possible increase of agricultural production, and to obtain this in the most efficient way possible.
Te mjere će morati biti usmjerene na najveći mogući porast poljoprivredne proizvodnje, i na to da se on postigne na najučinkovitiji mogući način.

[Tue Jul 22 09:45:52 2003]
This is essential in order to arrive at an increase in prosperity where necessary and to maintain an overall satisfactory standard of living and a simultaneous improvement in the European balance of payments with the other parts of the world
To je ključno kako bi se došlo do povećanja prosperiteta gdje je potrebno i kako bi se održao opći zadovoljavajući životni standard i istovremeno poboljšanje u europskoj platnoj bilanci s drugim dijelovima svijeta

[Tue Jul 22 09:48:01 2003]
In drafting these measures it is necessary to bear in mind the peculiar nature of the agricultural industry, and to appreciate the historical development of the European agricultural structure
Pri izradi ovih mjera, nužno je imati na umu specifičnu prirodu poljoprivredne industrije, te priznati povijesni razvoj europske agrarne strukture

[Tue Jul 22 09:48:17 2003]
Special characteristics of agriculture
Posebne karakteristike poljoprivrede

[Tue Jul 22 09:53:58 2003]
Primarily, agriculture is exceedingly dependent on natural factors of climate and soil, which cannot, or can hardly be influenced.
U prvom redu, poljoprivreda je krajnje ovisna o prirodnim čimbenicima klime i tla, na koje se ne može, ili se jedva može, utjecati.

[Tue Jul 22 09:56:40 2003]
Furthermore, agriculture is the most homogeneous industry in Europe, and for this reason the agricultural population is sociologically of extreme importance for each country.
Nadalje, poljoprivreda je najhomogenija industrija u Europi, i zbog toga je poljoprivredna populacija sociološki od iznimne važnosti za svaku zemlju.

[Tue Jul 22 09:58:39 2003]
This implies that no country can permit the livelihood of this group of the population to be seriously affected.
To podrazumijeva da nijedna zemlja ne može dopustiti da se ozbiljno ugrozi egzistencija te skupine stanovništva.

[Tue Jul 22 09:58:39 2003]
In other words, it is essential to maintain the agricultural class as such by keeping all suitable soil in cultivation
Drugim rječima, bitno je održati poljoprivrednu klasu kao takvu, i to kultiviranjem svog pogodnog tla

[Tue Jul 22 10:05:24 2003]
Finally, many countries consider it necessary, for strategical reasons, to have a certain agricultural production capacity available under all circumstances in behalf of the domestic food supply
Napokon, mnoge zemlje smatraju da je nužno, iz strateških razloga, u svim okolnostima imati na raspolaganju određeni kapacitet poljoprivredne proizvodnje, u korist domaće opskrbe hranom

[Tue Jul 22 10:07:27 2003]
This situation in particular has had the result that the domestic markets have been tightly protected
Ova situacija je posebice rezultirala time da su domaća tržišta bila čvrsto zaštićena

[Tue Jul 22 10:10:22 2003]
Generally speaking, the highest possible level of efficiency of production in Europe can be attained by a most thorough specialisation.
Općenito govoreći, najviša moguća razina učinkovitosti proizvodnje u Europi može se postići najtemeljitijom specijalizacijom.

[Tue Jul 22 10:11:07 2003]
To achieve this, however, free trade in one united European market is essential.
Međutim, da bi se to postiglo, ključna je slobodna trgovina u jednom ujedinjenom evropskom tržištu.

[Tue Jul 22 10:13:48 2003]
This condition cannot entirely be realised for agriculture.
Ovaj uvjet se u poljoprivredi ne može u potpunosti ostvariti.

[Tue Jul 22 10:13:48 2003]
The sociological characteristics of agriculture and the strategical factors, as mentioned sub 11, are the reasons why the consequences of free trade in agricultural produce cannot be accepted unconditionally by most European countries
Sociološke karakteristike poljoprivrede i strateški čimbenici, kako je spomenuto pod 11, su razlozi zbog kojih posljedice slobodnog trgovanja poljoprivrednim proizvodima ne mogu biti bezuvjetno prihvaćene od strane većine europskih zemalja

[Tue Jul 22 10:18:11 2003]
Yet it is still desirable to take immediate steps to establish a more extensive liberalisation of commercial trade
Ipak, još uvijek je poželjno poduzeti izravne korake da se uspostavi šira liberalizacija komercijalne trgovine

[Tue Jul 22 10:24:08 2003]
A more liberal exchange of produce will already advance a stabilisation in marketing.
Liberalnija razmjena proizvoda će već doprinijeti stabilizaciji u trženju.

[Tue Jul 22 10:24:08 2003]
The uncertainty with regard to the financial results in agriculture is not only caused by the uncertainty of outlet, but also by uncertainty of prices
Nesigurnost u pogledu financijskih rezultata u poljoprivredi nije uzrokovana samo nesigurnošću plasmana, nego također i promjenljivosti cijena

[Tue Jul 22 10:27:25 2003]
A stabilisation of the price level implies that it cannot be left to the interaction of supply and demand to fix prices, but that control measures will be unavoidable for the present
Stabiliziranje razine cijena podrazumijeva da ona ne može biti ostavljena interakciji ponude i potražnje i zahtjevu za određivanjem cijena, ali i da su kontrolne mjere zasad neizbježne

[Fri Jul 25 11:01:52 2003]
pharmaceutical firm
farmaceutska tvrtka

[Mon Jul 28 09:30:42 2003]
In this chapter we shall consider just some dynamic aspects of the theory the firm.
U ovom ćemo poglavlju razmotriti samo neke dinamičke aspekte teorije tvrtke.

[Mon Jul 28 09:31:43 2003]
Surprisingly, little work has been done on dynamic aspects of firm behaviour.
Iznenađujuće, nije se mnogo radilo na dinamičkim aspektima ponašanja tvrtke.

[Mon Jul 28 09:32:59 2003]
There has been some work on advertising, a dynamic consideration of diffusion of new products and a little more on the dynamics of oligopoly.
Nešto se radilo na reklamiranju, dinamičnom razmatranju širenja novih proizvoda i nešto više na dinamici oligopola.

[Mon Jul 28 09:32:59 2003]
We shall consider all three in this chapter
U ovom poglavlju ćemo razmotriti sva tri aspekta

[Mon Jul 28 09:38:21 2003]
Consider a monopolist who produces a single product that sells at a price p. It might be thought that a monopolist does not need to advertise since it is the sole supplier of a product.
Uzmimo monopolista koji proizvodi jedan proizvod koji se prodaje po cijeni p. Možda će se misliti da se monopolist ne treba oglašavati budući da je jedini opskrbljivač proizvodom.

[Mon Jul 28 09:39:06 2003]
But even a monopolist needs to inform the public of its product.
Ali čak i monopolist treba informirati javnost o svom proizvodu.

[Mon Jul 28 09:39:06 2003]
Furthermore, if the product is a consumer durable, then its sales will decline
Osim toga, ako je proizvod potrošački trajan, njegova prodaja će pasti

[Mon Jul 28 09:47:14 2003]
We assume that with no advertising sales decline at a constant rate r, which is proportional to the sales at that time.
Pretpostavljamo da bez oglašavanja prodaja po konstantnoj stopi r, koja je proporcionalna prodaji u to doba.

[Mon Jul 28 09:47:14 2003]
In other words, we have an initial value problem of the form
Drugim riječima, imamo problem početne vrijednosti u obliku

[Mon Jul 28 09:52:57 2003]
To see what the path of sales looks like, we need to solve this equation.
Da bismo vidjeli kako izgleda kretanje prodaje, trebamo riješiti ovu jednadžbu.

[Mon Jul 28 09:53:49 2003]
Solution methods are available for this (see Shone, 1997, ch.
Za to su nam na raspolaganju metode rješavanja (vidi Shone, 1997, poglavlje

[Mon Jul 28 09:54:43 2003]
2), but here we shall use a spreadsheet to derive the path of sales.
Za to su nam na raspolaganju metode rješavanja (vidi Shone, 1997, poglavlje 2), ali ovdje ćemo upotrijebiti proračunsku tablicu da dobijemo kretanje prodaje.

[Mon Jul 28 09:55:35 2003]
As in earlier chapters, we use Euler's approximation to do this.
Kao u ranijim poglavljima, u tu svrhu ćemo koristiti Eulerovu aproksimaciju.

[Mon Jul 28 09:55:35 2003]
The model is set up in terms of figure
Model je postavljen u odnosu na sliku

[Mon Jul 28 10:00:53 2003]
First we insert in cells A8 to A 1008 the periods for t using the Fill command.
Prvo u ćelije A8 do 1008 umetnemo razdoblja za t koristeći naredbu Fill.

[Mon Jul 28 10:02:02 2003]
In cells F3 and F4 we place the values of r and ?t, respectively, where we use the label 'dt' for ?t.
U ćelije F3 i F4 stavimo vrijednosti za r i ?t, zasebno, gdje koristimo oznaku 'dt' za ?t.

[Mon Jul 28 10:02:56 2003]
In this example we are assuming that sales decline at a constant rate of 5% continuously.
U ovom primjeru pretpostavljamo da prodaja kontinuirano opada po konstantnoj stopi od 5%.

[Mon Jul 28 10:03:46 2003]
In addition, we are using a value of ?t = 0.05 our time interval.
Povrh toga, koristimo vrijednost t = 0.05 našeg vremenskog intervala.

[Mon Jul 28 10:04:35 2003]
The initial value of sales is placed in cell B8, and we assume this is 100.
Početna vrijednost prodaje je stavljena u ćeliju B8, i mi pretpostavljamo da je 100.

[Mon Jul 28 10:04:35 2003]
Next, in cell B9, we place the formula for s(1), i.e.
Zatim, u ćeliju B9 stavljamo formulu za s(1), tj.

[Mon Jul 28 10:13:07 2003]
which is then copied to the clipboard and pasted down in cells B10 to B1008.
koja se zatim kopira na "clipboard" i lijepi u ćelije B10 do B1008.

[Mon Jul 28 10:15:25 2003]
Finally, we block cells A 1 :B 1008 and activate the chart wizard.
Konačno, blokiramo ćelije A1:B1008 i aktiviramo wizard za grafikon.

[Mon Jul 28 10:17:50 2003]
Using the X-Y chart, we create the chart that is shown in figure 7.1, after some suitable annotations.
Koristeći X-Y grafikon, stvaramo grafikon prikazan na slici 7.1, nakon nekih odgovarajućih anotacija.

[Mon Jul 28 10:17:50 2003]
What we immediately see is that sales decline in a curvilinear fashion towards zero
Ono što odmah primjećujemo je da prodaja opada prema nuli u kurvilinearnom obliku

[Mon Jul 28 10:19:09 2003]
We know that it must be zero.
Znamo da mora biti nula.

[Mon Jul 28 10:19:56 2003]
Consider the fixed point of this system.
Razmotrimo fiksnu točku ovog sustava.

[Mon Jul 28 10:19:56 2003]
For a fixed point we know that
Za fiksnu točku znamo da

[Mon Jul 28 10:25:31 2003]
Furthermore, since the differential has a negative slope, as we are assuming r is positive, then the system is globally stable.
Nadalje, budući da diferencijal ima negativan nagib, pretpostavljamo da je r pozitivno, i tada je sustav globalno stabilan.

[Mon Jul 28 10:26:25 2003]
Note that since sales cannot be negative then we are considering only stability properties in the positive quadrant.
Uočljivo je da budući da prodaja ne može biti negativna, tada razmatramo jedino svojstva stabilnosti u pozitivnom kvadrantu.

[Mon Jul 28 10:26:40 2003]
No matter what the initial value of sales, they will over time decline to zero.
Bez obzira na to kakva je početna vrijednost prodaje, s vremenom će pasti na nulu.

[Mon Jul 28 10:26:40 2003]
The origin is an attractor of the system
Ishodište je atraktor sistema

[Mon Jul 28 10:31:31 2003]
Now that we have established the time path of sales without advertising, we can consider the situation the company might face if it engages in some form of advertising.
Sada kad smo utvrdili vremensko kretanje prodaje bez oglašavanja, možemo razmotriti situaciju u kojoj bi se tvrtka mogla naći ako je uključena u neki oblikom oglašavanja.

[Mon Jul 28 10:32:01 2003]
Of course, we must make some assumptions about the impact of advertising on this dynamic system.
Naravno, moramo stvoriti neke pretpostavke o utjecaju oglašavanja na ovaj dinamički sustav.

[Mon Jul 28 10:32:01 2003]
We make the following assumptions
Imamo sljedeće pretpostavke

[Mon Jul 28 10:34:20 2003]
Advertising leads to an increase in sales directly proportional to the rate of advertising
Oglašavanje dovodi do porasta prodaje koji je izravno proporcionalan omjeru reklamiranja

[Mon Jul 28 10:49:34 2003]
the proportion of sales improved by such advertising.
omjer prodaje koju je to oglašavanje poboljšalo.

[Mon Jul 28 10:49:34 2003]
If, then, sales rise directly in proportion to the rate of advertising, and this increase in turn can arise only from the proportion of the market that has not already purchased the product, then this increase is given by
Ako, tada, prodaja raste srazmjerno sa cijenom reklamiranja, i ovaj porast za uzvrat može proizaći samo iz dijela tržišta koji još nije kupio proizvod, tada je taj porast zadan sljedećim

[Mon Jul 28 10:56:05 2003]
Since this offsets the decline generally taking place, then in any period sales will be changing by the amount
Budući da to kompenzira pad koji se općenito odigrava, tada će se u bilo kojem razdoblju prodaja mijenjati u iznosu

[Mon Jul 28 10:58:43 2003]
First we need to establish the steady-state solution of our new model.
Prvo trebamo uspostaviti rješenje stabilnog stanja našeg novog modela.

[Mon Jul 28 10:58:43 2003]
Once again this is found by setting
Još jednom, to se pronalazi postavljanjem

[Mon Jul 28 11:06:02 2003]
Not only is this no longer zero, but it is also a function of the amount of advertising.
Ne samo da više nije nula, nego je također i funkcija svote oglašavanja.

[Mon Jul 28 11:06:30 2003]
As the firm spends more on advertising, equilibrium sales rise.
Kako tvrtka više troši na oglašavanje, ravnotežna prodaja raste.

[Mon Jul 28 11:08:50 2003]
The rise, however, cannot be indefinite.
Porast, međutim, ne može biti neograničen.

[Mon Jul 28 11:09:24 2003]
As advertising expenditure increases indefinitely, sales cannot exceed the maximum absorptive capacity.
Kako troškovi oglašavanja neograničeno rastu, prodaje ne može premašivati maksimalni kapacitet apsorpcije.

[Mon Jul 28 11:09:24 2003]
This is readily established
To se lako ustanovljava

[Mon Jul 28 11:14:42 2003]
We continue to let sales decline by a rate of 5% continuously, with initial sales at 100,000.
Nastavljamo poštati da prodaja kontinuirano pada po stopi od 5%, s početnom prodajom na 100,000.

[Mon Jul 28 11:16:17 2003]
The maximum absorption per period is 500,000.
Maksimalna apsorpcija po razdoblju je 500,000.

[Mon Jul 28 11:16:17 2003]
Now the firm engages in advertising at a rate of a, which we shall assume raises sales by a proportion 0.2
Sada je tvrtka uključena u oglašavanje u iznosu a, za koji ćemo pretpostaviti da povećava prodaju u omjeru 0.2

[Mon Jul 28 11:21:08 2003]
Suppose the firm has an advertising rate of
Pretpostavimo da je cijena reklamiranja tvrtke

[Mon Jul 28 11:27:48 2003]
Advertising model:
Oglašavanje model:

[Mon Jul 28 11:38:56 2003]
It could be considered that firms do not make decisions in continuous time and that a discrete model captures real-life decisions much more accurately.
Moglo bi se smatrati da tvrtke ne odlučuju u kontinuiranom vremenu i da diskretan model mnogo točnije prikazuje stvarne odluke.

[Mon Jul 28 11:41:54 2003]
Consider, then, the model in section 7.2 in discrete time.
Razmotrimo, tada, model u dijelu 7.2 u zasebnom vremenu.

[Mon Jul 28 11:42:49 2003]
We can be brief because we have explained the various ideas above.
Možemo biti kratki zato što smo gore objasnili razne ideje.

[Mon Jul 28 11:42:55 2003]
We assume that the change in sales over the period declines by a percentage r.
Pretpostavljamo da promjena u prodaji tijekom razdoblja opada za postotak r.

[Mon Jul 28 11:51:10 2003]
Advertising is undertaken at a rate of a per period that raises sales by y on the proportion of the market that is not yet purchasing the product.
Oglašavanje se poduzima u mjeri od a po razdoblju što podiže prodaju za y na dijelu tržišta koji još ne kupuje proizvod.

[Mon Jul 28 11:51:21 2003]
This is no more than (7.3), but now considered in discrete time.
To nije više od (7.3), ali je sada razmotreno u zasebnom vremenu.

[Mon Jul 28 11:51:21 2003]
Consequently, the change in sales over the period is
Slijedom navedenog, promjena u prodaji tijekom razdoblja je

[Mon Jul 28 11:56:16 2003]
Does the discrete model have the same fixed point as the continuous model?
Ima li diskretni model istu fiksnu točku kao kontinuirani model?

[Mon Jul 28 11:56:16 2003]
For a steady-state solution we have
Za rješenje stabilnog stanja imamo

[Mon Jul 28 12:02:54 2003]
Here we assume that advertising takes place from period 1 onwards.
Ovdje pretpostavljamo da se oglašavanje odvija od razdoblja 1 nadalje.

[Mon Jul 28 12:02:54 2003]
Then we can solve for the path of sales using the formula
Tada možemo riješiti kretanje prodaje koristeći formulu

[Mon Jul 28 12:07:19 2003]
which is very easy to set up on a spreadsheet.
koji je vrlo lako postaviti u proračunsku tablicu.

[Mon Jul 28 12:07:19 2003]
The reader is encouraged to do this for the problem we had above in which advertising in each period was constant with
Čitatelj se potiče da to učini za problem koji smo imali gore, u kojem je oglašavanje u svakom razdoblju bilo konstantno s

[Mon Jul 28 12:11:16 2003]
Here, however, we shall consider a slightly different problem.
Međutim, ovdje ćemo razmotriti malo drugačiji problem.

[Mon Jul 28 12:11:16 2003]
Suppose a monopolist has initial sales of 5 but faces declining sales at a rate of 1% per period, where maximum absorption per period is 20
Pretpostavimo da monopolist ima početnu prodaju od 5, ali je suočen s padom prodaje u omjeru od 1% po razdoblju, gdje je maksimalna apsorpcija po razdoblju 20

[Mon Jul 28 12:18:08 2003]
The monopolist decides on a constant amount for advertising over the next five years, and that this amount is spread evenly over this period.
Monopolist se odlučuje za konstantnu svotu za oglašavanje tijekom idućih pet godina, i da je ta svota ravnomjerno rapodijeljena tijekom ovog razdoblja.

[Mon Jul 28 12:18:08 2003]
Let the total advertising budget, denoted A, be L10,000, amounting to
Neka ukupan proračun za oglašavanje, označen sa A, bude L10 000, iznoseći

[Mon Jul 28 12:19:50 2003]
in each of the next five years, and zero thereafter
u svakoj od idućih pet godina, i nula nakon toga

[Mon Jul 28 12:21:00 2003]
The problem is set out in the spreadsheet shown in figure
Problem postavljen u proračunskoj tablici prikazan u slici

[Mon Jul 28 12:22:18 2003]
This information is given in column C in cells C8 to C18, where we consider only up to time
Ovaj podatak je zadan u stupcu C, u ćelijama C8 do C18, gdje razmatramo samo do vremena

[Mon Jul 28 12:28:50 2003]
with sales declining at a rate of 1% per period, given in cell G3;
s prodajom koja opada u omjeru od 1% po razdoblju, zadano u ćeliji G3;

[Mon Jul 28 12:29:53 2003]
sales being offset by 0.6 of the proportion of the market that is not yet purchasing the product, given in cell G4;
prodajom koja je kompenzirana s 0.6 odjela tržišta koje još ne kupuje proizvod, zadano u ćeliji G4;

[Mon Jul 28 12:30:30 2003]
and the maximum absorption is 20, given in cell G5.
i maksimalna apsorpcija je 20, zadano u ćeliji G5.

[Mon Jul 28 12:31:13 2003]
In cell B8 we place the initial sales, set at 5.
U ćeliju B8 stavljamo početnu prodaju, postavljenu na 5.

[Mon Jul 28 12:31:13 2003]
In cell B9 we insert the formula
U ćeliju B9 umećemo formulu

[Mon Jul 28 12:34:09 2003]
This is then copied to the clipboard and pasted down.
To se zatim kopira na "clipboard" i zalijepi.

[Mon Jul 28 12:34:09 2003]
Finally, we insert the graph as shown in figure
Konačno, umećemo grafikon kako je prikazano na slici

[Mon Jul 28 12:39:43 2003]
For the first five years advertising leads to increased sales that offsets the natural decline.
U prvih pet godina oglašavanje dovodi do povećane prodaje što kompenzira prirodan pad.

[Mon Jul 28 12:39:43 2003]
Once advertising stops, however, the natural decline begins to take effect
Međutim, kad oglašavanje prestane, dolazi do prirodnog pada

[Mon Jul 28 12:49:50 2003]
In recent years we have seen the widespread use of desktop computers, and more recently the increased use of the mobile phone.
Posljednjih godina svjedoci smo rasprostranjenog korištenja desktop računala, i u posljednje vrijeme povećanog korištenja mobilnih telefona.

[Mon Jul 28 12:50:02 2003]
The process by which such innovations are communicated through society and the rate at which they are taken up is called diffusion.
Proces kojim se takve inovacije prenose kroz društvo i vrijednost koju zauzimaju se naziva difuzija.

[Mon Jul 28 12:50:34 2003]
Innovations need not be products.
Inovacije ne moraju biti proizvodi.

[Mon Jul 28 12:50:34 2003]
They can just as easily be an idea or some contagious disease
Inovacija isto tako može biti ideja ili neka zarazna bolest

[Mon Jul 28 12:59:09 2003]
Although a variety of models have been discussed in the literature the time path of the diffusion process most typically takes the form of the S-shaped (sigmoid) curve.
Iako se u literaturi raspravljalo o nizu modela, vremenska putanja procesa difuzije najčešće ima formu krivulje u obliku slova S (sigmoidne).

[Mon Jul 28 12:59:09 2003]
The general nature of such a curve is shown in figure
Uobičajen priroda takve krivulje je prikazana na slici

[Mon Jul 28 13:02:43 2003]
where we have included some aspects of the curve.
gdje smo uključili neke aspekte krivulje.

[Mon Jul 28 13:04:08 2003]
Considering the mobile phone, we would expect only a few adoptions in the early stages, possibly business people.
Što se tiče mobilnih telefona, očekivali bismo samo malo prihvaćanja u ranim fazama, vjerojatno od strane poslovnih ljudi.

[Mon Jul 28 14:09:39 2003]
The adoption begins to accelerate, diffusing to the public at large and even to youngsters.
Prihvaćanje se ubrzava, uvelike se šireći u javnosti, čak i među djecom.

[Mon Jul 28 14:10:02 2003]
But then it begins to tail off as saturation of the market becomes closer.
Ali zatim počinje padati, kako se približava zasićenje tržišta.

[Mon Jul 28 14:10:52 2003]
At the upper limit the market is saturated.
Na gornjoj granici tržište je zasićeno.

[Mon Jul 28 14:10:52 2003]
Hence the S-shape that is depicted in figure
Otud oblik slova S koji je prikazan na slici

[Mon Jul 28 14:21:41 2003]
Although this is a verbal description of the diffusion process, and suggests an S-shaped mathematical formulation of the process, it supplies no exact information about the functional form - in particular, the slope, which indicates the speed of the diffusion, or the asymptote, which indicates the level of saturation.
Iako je ovo verbalan opis procesa difuzije, i sugerira matematičku formulaciju procesa u obliku slova S, on ne daje točne podatke o funkcionalnom obliku - posebno nagibu, koji ukazuje na brzinu difuzije, ili asimptoti, koja ukazuje na razinu zasićenja.

[Mon Jul 28 14:21:41 2003]
Furthermore, such diffusion processes may differ between products
Nadalje, takvi procesi difuzije se mogu razlikovati među proizvodima

[Mon Jul 28 14:25:13 2003]
cumulative number of adopters at time
kumulativni broj usvajača u vrijeme

[Mon Jul 28 14:27:15 2003]
the coefficient of diffusion
koeficijent difuzije

[Mon Jul 28 14:28:03 2003]
as the probability of adoption at time
kao vjerojatnost prihvaćanja u vremenu

[Mon Jul 28 14:39:08 2003]
The more individuals already having a mobile phone makes it more attractive for another individual who does not have one to purchase one.
Što je više osoba koje već imaju mobilni telefon, to je više drugih osoba koje ga nemaju privučeno da ga kupe.

[Mon Jul 28 14:39:41 2003]
In other cases, adoption has nothing to do with how many individuals already have a phone.
U ostalim slučajevima, prihvaćanje nema veze s tim koliko osoba već ima telefon.

[Mon Jul 28 14:39:41 2003]
We capture all this in simple terms by assuming
To se pojednostavljeno može obuhvatiti pretpostavljajući

[Mon Jul 28 14:44:24 2003]
time period of maximum penetration
vremensko razdoblje maksimalnog prodora

[Mon Jul 28 15:08:46 2003]
This is then copied to the clipboard and paste down.
To se zatim kopirao na "clipboard" i zalijepi.

[Mon Jul 28 15:08:46 2003]
Finally cells A6:B506 is blocked and then the chart wizard is activated to create the chart shown in figure
B506 su blokirane i tada se aktivira wizard za grafikon da se napravi napraviti grafikon prikazan na slici

[Mon Jul 28 15:20:21 2003]
with respect to
u odnosu na

[Mon Jul 28 15:32:19 2003]
Static theory of oligopoly
Statička teorija oligopola

[Mon Jul 28 15:34:43 2003]
The model we shall consider in this chapter has a very simple linear demand curve and constant marginal costs.
Model koji ćemo razmotriti u ovom poglavlju ima vrlo jednostavnu linearna krivulju potražnje i stalni marginalni trošak.

[Mon Jul 28 15:34:43 2003]
The model is as follows
Model je sljedeći

[Mon Jul 28 15:43:01 2003]
Since our interest is with stability and the impact of increasing the number of firms in the industry, or changing the specification of marginal cost, we assume for simplicity that all firms are identical for any size n, where n represents the number of firms in the industry.
Budući da nas zanima stabilnost i učinak povećavanja broja tvrtki u grani industrije, ili mijenjanje specifikacije marginalnog troška, pretpostavljamo zbog jednostavnosti da su sve tvrtke identične za bilo koju veličinu n, gdje n predstavlja broj tvrtki u gospodarskoj grani.

[Mon Jul 28 15:43:01 2003]
Since this model of duopoly is dealt with in most intermediate microeconomic textbooks, we shall be brief
Budući da se ovim modelom duopola bave mikroekonomski udžbenici srednjeg stupnja, bit ćemo kratki

[Mon Jul 28 15:58:49 2003]
Since the conjectural variation is that firm 1 will maximise its profits under the assumption that firm 2 holds its output constant, then we can differentiate the profit function of firm 1 with respect to q1 holding q2 constant
Budući da je vjerojatna varijacija da će tvrtka 1 maksimalizirati svoj profit pod pretpostavkom da tvrtka 2 održava svoj obujam proizvodnje konstantnim, tada možemo razlikovati funkciju dobiti tvrtke 1 u odnosu na q1 koji održava q2 konstantnim

[Mon Jul 28 16:09:22 2003]
Solving we obtain the two reaction functions
Rješavanjem dobivamo dvije reakcijske funkcije

[Mon Jul 28 16:20:10 2003]
Notice that the isoprofit curves for firm 1 are at a maximum, for any given level of output for firm 2, at the point on the reaction curve for firm 1.
Primjećuje se da su izoprofitne krivulje za tvrtku 1 na maksimumu, za bilo koju razinu obujma proizvodnje za tvrtku 2, u točci na krivulji reakcije za tvrtku 1.

[Mon Jul 28 16:20:46 2003]
Furthermore, the preference direction is in the direction of the arrow on the reaction curve.
Nadalje, preferirani smjer je u smjeru strelice na krivulji reakcije.

[Mon Jul 28 16:20:46 2003]
The highest level of profits for firm 1 is at point A, where it is a monopolist
Najviša razina profita za tvrtku 1 je u točci A, gdje je ona monopolist

[Mon Jul 28 16:26:25 2003]
Similarly, the isoprofit curves for firm 2 are at a maximum, for any given level of output for firm 1, at the point on the reaction curve for firm 2.
Slično tome, izoprofitne krivulje za tvrtku 2 su u maksimumu, za bilo koju razinu obujma proizvodnje za tvrtku 1, u točci na krivulji reakcije za tvrtku 2.

[Mon Jul 28 16:26:25 2003]
Firm 2's preference direction is in the direction of the arrow on its reaction curve, and the highest level of profits it can reach is indicated by point B, where firm 2 is a monopolist
Preferirani smjer tvrtke 2 je u smjeru strelice na krivulji reakcije, i najviša razina profita koju može dosegnuti je označena točkom B, gdje je tvrtka 2 monopolist

[Mon Jul 28 16:34:00 2003]
In order to answer this question we must set up the model in dynamic terms.
Kako bismo odgovorili na to pitanje moramo postaviti model u dinamičkim pojmovima.

[Mon Jul 28 16:35:14 2003]
Only then can we answer this question.
Jedino tada možemo odgovoriti na to pitanje.

[Mon Jul 28 16:35:49 2003]
Whatever the answer happens to be, the same question applies when we increase the number of firms in the industry.
Kakav god bio odgovor, isto pitanje vrijedi kada povećamo broj tvrtki u gospodarskoj grani.

[Mon Jul 28 16:35:49 2003]
As we do so, we must move away from the diagrammatic formulation of the model and concentrate on its mathematical specification
Čineći to, mi moramo se odmaknuti od dijagramatskog formuliranja modela i koncentrirati se na njegovu matematičku specifikaciju

[Mon Jul 28 16:41:25 2003]
In section 7.6 we consider a discrete model with output adjusting completely and instantaneously.
6 razmatramo diskretni model s proizvodnjom koja se prilagođava u potpunosti i trenutno.

[Mon Jul 28 16:41:25 2003]
Our main concern is with the stability of oligopoly as the number of firms in the industry increases
Naš glavni interes je stabilnost oligopola, kako raste broj tvrtki u privrednoj grani

[Mon Jul 28 16:46:42 2003]
In the static model the assumption was that firm 1 would maximise its profits under the assumption that firm 2 would hold its output level constant.
U statičkom modelu pretpostavka je bila da će tvrtka 1 maksimizirati svoj profit pod pretpostavkom da će tvrtka 2 održati svoju razinu proizvodnje konstantnom.

[Mon Jul 28 16:46:42 2003]
A similar condition applies also to firm 2
Sličan uvjet vrijedi i za tvrtku 2

[Mon Jul 28 17:08:33 2003]
These dynamic specifications for each firm change the form of the total revenue function, and hence the profit functions.
Ove dinamičke specifikacije za svaku tvrtku mijenjaju oblik funkcije ukupnog prihoda, te stoga i funkcije dobiti.

[Mon Jul 28 17:08:37 2003]
Total costs are unaffected.
Ukupni troškovi su nepromijenjeni.

[Mon Jul 28 17:08:37 2003]
The profit function for each firm is
Funkcija dobiti za svaku tvrtku je

[Mon Jul 28 17:10:48 2003]
Again, in the spirit of Cournot, each firm is maximising its profits under the conjectural variation that the other firm is holding its output level constant.
Opet, u duhu Cournota, svaka tvrtka maksimizira svoj profit prema vjerojatnoj varijaciji da druga tvrtka održava svoju razinu proizvodnje konstantnom.

[Mon Jul 28 17:11:25 2003]
which results in the following dynamic adjustments
što rezultira sljedećim dinamičkim prilagodbama

[Tue Jul 29 09:19:22 2003]
We can now set out these two dynamic equations on a spreadsheet, supply some initial values for each firm's output, and see if the Cournot solution results as time passes.
Sad možemo postaviti ove dvije dinamičke jednadžbe u proračunsku tablicu, navesti neke početne vrijednosti za obujam proizvodnje svake tvrtke, i vidjeti rezultira li to Cournotovim Rješenjem kako vrijeme prolazi.

[Tue Jul 29 09:19:52 2003]
This is done in figure 7.7
To je učinjeno na slici 7.7

[Tue Jul 29 09:20:01 2003]
Cells B8 and C8 supply initial values for each firm's output.
Ćelije B8 i C8 navode početne vrijednosti za obujam proizvodnje svake tvrtke.

[Tue Jul 29 09:20:01 2003]
Cells B9 and C9 have the formulas
Ćelije B9 i C9 imaju formule

[Tue Jul 29 09:22:47 2003]
These are then copied to the clipboard and pasted down for as many periods as you wish, here we have up to period 15.
One se tad kopiraju na clipboard i zalijepe za toliko razdoblja koliko želite, ovdje do razdoblja 15.

[Tue Jul 29 09:24:12 2003]
Cells B8 to C23 are then blocked and the chart wizard is initiated producing the inserted chart, as shown in figure 7.7.
Ćelije B8 do C23 se tad blokiraju i pokreće se grafikon wizard koji stvara umetnutu tabelu, kako je prikazano na slici 7.7.

[Tue Jul 29 09:25:20 2003]
As in earlier chapters, you should check you have entered the formulas correctly by inserting in cells B8 and C8 the Cournot solution.
Kao u ranijim poglavljima, trebate provjeriti jeste li ispravno unijeli formule umetanjem Cournotovog rješenja u ćelije B8 i C8.

[Tue Jul 29 09:25:20 2003]
Doing this gives all entries the value of 2
Ovime svaka ulazna veličina dobiva vrijednost 2

[Tue Jul 29 09:29:06 2003]
where firm 1 begins from a monopoly position
gdje tvrtka 1 kreće s monopolističke pozicije

[Tue Jul 29 09:33:53 2003]
which can be thought of as the position where both firms are deciding whether to enter the industry.
koja može biti smatrana pozicijom gdje obje tvrtke odlučuju treba li ući u privrednu granu.

[Tue Jul 29 09:35:06 2003]
Again the system converges on the Cournot solution.
Sustav ponovo konvergira u Cournotovom rješenju.

[Tue Jul 29 09:35:06 2003]
What is illustrated here is the general result that, for linear demand and constant marginal costs, Cournot duopoly is dynamically stable
Ovdje je ilustriran generalan rezultat da je, za linearnu potražnju i stalni marginalni trošak, Cournotov duopol dinamički postojan

[Tue Jul 29 09:39:08 2003]
Most elementary textbooks stop with the duopoly case.
Najosnovniji udžbenici staju na slučaju duopola.

[Tue Jul 29 09:39:22 2003]
But it leaves the reader with the impression that such stability is quite general for oligopoly models.
Ali to na čitatelja ostavlja dojam da je takva stabilnost prilično uobičajena za modele oligopol.

[Tue Jul 29 09:40:54 2003]
In order to consider this issue, we continue with our example, which assumes linear demand and constant marginal costs, and have three identical firms.
Da bismo razmotrili ovo pitanje, nastavljamo sa svojim primjerom, koji pretpostavlja linearnu potražnju i stalni marginalni trošak, i ima tri identične tvrtke.

[Tue Jul 29 09:40:54 2003]
Our model is now
Sada je naš model

[Tue Jul 29 09:49:52 2003]
Again, in the spirit of Cournot, each firm is maximising its profits under the conjectural variation that the other firms are holding their output levels constant.
Opet, u duhu Cournota, svaka tvrtka maksimizira svoj profit prema vjerojatnoj varijaciji da druge tvrtke održavaju svoju razinu proizvodnje konstantnom.

[Tue Jul 29 09:54:10 2003]
What we have here is a simultaneous set of three recursive equations.
Ovdje imamo istovremeni set od tri rekurzivne jednadžbe.

[Tue Jul 29 09:54:20 2003]
The dynamics of this model are shown in figure 7.8.
Dinamika ovog modela je prikazana na slici 7.8.

[Tue Jul 29 09:54:42 2003]
Cells B9, C9 and 09 contain the initial values.
Ćelije B9, C9 i 09 sadržavaju početne vrijednosti.

[Tue Jul 29 09:54:54 2003]
Here we have initial values (3,0,0) in which firm 1 is a monopolist.
Ovdje imamo početne vrijednosti (3,0,0) gdje je tvrtka 1 monopolist.

[Tue Jul 29 09:54:54 2003]
Cells B10, C10 and D10 have formulas
Ćelije B10, C10 i D10 sadrže formule

[Tue Jul 29 09:57:00 2003]
These values are then copied to the clipboard and pasted down, here up to period 15.
Te vrijednosti se zatim kopiraju na "clipboard" i zalijepe, ovdje do razdoblja 15.

[Tue Jul 29 09:58:32 2003]
Spreadsheet programmes cannot plot more than two variables.
Programi za proračunske tablice ne mogu prikazati više od dvije varijable.

[Tue Jul 29 09:58:36 2003]
Using the chart wizard, we plot three graphs:
Koristeći grafikon wizard, crtamo tri grafikona:

[Tue Jul 29 10:02:34 2003]
The graphs appear to show no obvious tendency towards the equilibrium.
Kod grafikona se ne primjećuje nikakvo vidljivo naginjanje prema ravnoteži.

[Tue Jul 29 10:02:34 2003]
Firm 2 against firm 3 seems to show a direct path, but the trajectory itself is certainly not to the Cournot solution
Tvrtka 2 protiv tvrtke 3 izgleda da pokazuje izravnu putanju, ali sama trajektorija nikako ne ide prema Cournotovom rješenju

[Tue Jul 29 10:04:59 2003]
The problem is more clearly shown by plotting the path of output for each of the firms.
Problem se jasnije prikazuje crtanjem grafičke linije proizvodnje za svaku od tvrtki.

[Tue Jul 29 10:06:04 2003]
Figure 7.9 provides the plot for all three firms.
9 pruža grafičku shemu za sve tri tvrtke.

[Tue Jul 29 10:06:17 2003]
What is quite clear from this figure is that each firm exhibits oscillations in their output after a brief initial period.
Iz ove je slike sasvim jasno da svaka tvrtka pokazuje oscilacije u obujmu proizvodnje nakon kratkog početnog razdoblja.

[Tue Jul 29 10:06:32 2003]
The Cournot solution is unstable.
Cournotovo rješenje je nestabilno.

[Tue Jul 29 10:06:48 2003]
Is this result general?
Je li ovaj rezultat općenit?

[Tue Jul 29 10:07:58 2003]
Try the initial values ( 1, 2, 3).
Pokušajmo s početnim vrijednostima (1, 2, 3).

[Tue Jul 29 10:09:28 2003]
It is readily observed that the same oscillatory behaviour results.
Brzo se primjećuju isti rezultati oscilatornog ponašanja.

[Tue Jul 29 10:11:58 2003]
Return to the duopoly model with linear demand and constant marginal costs
Vratimo se duopolnom modelu s linearnom potražnjom i stalnim marginalnim troškom

[Tue Jul 29 10:21:21 2003]
What these adjustment equations indicate is that each firm adjusts its previous period's output by a proportion of the discrepancy between its desired output level at time t and its output level in the previous period.
Ove jednadžbe prilagodbe ukazuju na to da svaka tvrtka prilagođava obujam proizvodnje iz prethodnog razdoblja u omjeru nepodudarnosti između poželjne razine proizvodnje u vremenu t i razine proizvodnje u prethodnom razdoblju.

[Tue Jul 29 10:22:17 2003]
Note also, however, that the optimal value at time t is adjusted according to the information at time t - 1.
Međutim, također je uočljivo da se optimalna vrijednost u vremenu t usklađuje prema podacima u vremenu t - 1.

[Tue Jul 29 10:22:17 2003]
Output at time t can therefore be considered a two-step procedure
Proizvodnja u vremenu t se stoga može smatrati postupkom u dva koraka

[Tue Jul 29 10:23:39 2003]
The desired output level on the part of each firm is given by their reaction function, so
Poželjna razina proizvodnje za svaku tvrtku je zadana reakcijskom funkcijom, dakle

[Tue Jul 29 10:27:14 2003]
In cells H3 and H4 we place the values
U ćelije H3 i H4 umećemo vrijednosti

[Tue Jul 29 10:28:58 2003]
Here we assume that they have the same value of 0.75.
Ovdje pretpostavljamo da imaju istu vrijednost od 0.75.

[Tue Jul 29 10:29:29 2003]
In cells B8 and C8 we have the initial values for the output of firms 1 and 2.
U ćelijama B8 i C8 imamo početne vrijednosti za proizvodnju tvrtki 1 i 2.

[Tue Jul 29 10:29:39 2003]
We have an initial position with firm 1 a monopolist.
Imamo polazni položaj gdje je tvrtka 1 monopolist.

[Tue Jul 29 10:29:39 2003]
In cells B9 and C9 we have the formulas
U ćelijama B9 i C9 imamo formule

[Tue Jul 29 10:32:03 2003]
These values are then copied to the clipboard and pasted down.
Ove vrijednosti se zatim su kopiraju na "clipboard" i zalijepe.

[Tue Jul 29 10:32:03 2003]
Finally, cells B8 to C28 are blocked and the chart wizard is initiated to produce the inserted chart in figure 7.10
Napokon, ćelije B8 do C28 se blokiraju i pokreće se grafikon wizard da se izradi umetnuta tabela na slici 7.10

[Tue Jul 29 10:34:08 2003]
the model exhibits stability, with output converging on the Cournot solution.
model pokazuje stabilnost, s proizvodnjom koja konvergira u Cournotovom rješenju.

[Tue Jul 29 10:34:08 2003]
But is this always true?
Ali je li to uvijek tako?

[Tue Jul 29 10:36:15 2003]
First check the formulas by placing the Cournot solution as the initial conditions.
Prvo provjerite formule plasirajući Cournotovo rješenje kao početne uvjete.

[Tue Jul 29 10:36:46 2003]
If all is correct, all entries in the table should have the value 2.
Ako je sve točno, sve ulazne vrijednosti u tablici bi trebali imati vrijednost 2.

[Tue Jul 29 10:36:46 2003]
Now return the initial values to the situation with firm 1 being a monopolist, with initial point (3,0)
Sada vratite početne vrijednosti na situaciju gdje je tvrtka 1 monopolist, s početnom točkom (3,0)

[Tue Jul 29 10:38:09 2003]
Consider the situation with firm 2 being the monopolist, with initial point (0,3).
Razmotrite situaciju gdje je tvrtka 2 monopolist, s početnom točkom (0,3).

[Tue Jul 29 10:42:47 2003]
Once again the system converges on the equilibrium.
Još jednom sustav konvergira na ravnoteži.

[Tue Jul 29 10:43:18 2003]
So far the results appear the same as our perfect adjustment.
Zasad rezultati izgledaju isto kao naša savršena prilagodba.

[Tue Jul 29 10:43:18 2003]
Return to the initial situation with firm 1 the monopolist and now let
Vratimo se na početnu situaciju s tvrtkom 1 kao monopolistom i sad neka bude

[Tue Jul 29 10:45:38 2003]
The system after some time begins to settle down to an oscillatory behaviour.
Sustav nakon nekog vremena počinje smirivati oscilatorno ponašanje.

[Tue Jul 29 10:45:38 2003]
This is also true if the initial situation is with firm 2 being the monopolist
To vrijedi i ako je u početnoj situaciji tvrtka 2 monopolist

[Tue Jul 29 10:46:58 2003]
then the system is oscillatory and explosive
tada je sustav oscilatoran i eksplozivan

[Tue Jul 29 10:49:00 2003]
The same is true if firm 2 is initially the monopolist.
Isto vrijedi i ako je početno tvrtka 2 monopolist.

[Tue Jul 29 10:50:22 2003]
Although the duopoly model with complete and instantaneous adjustment is stable, the same cannot be said of partial adjustment.
Iako je duopolni model s potpunom i trenutačnom prilagodbom stabilan, isto se ne može reći za djelomičnu prilagodbu.

[Tue Jul 29 10:50:22 2003]
In this instance, duopoly can exhibit stable, oscillatory or explosive adjustment paths, depending on the size of the adjustment coefficients
U tom slučaju, duopol može pokazivati stabilne, oscilatorne ili eksplozivne putanje prilagodbe, ovisno o veličini koeficijenata prilagodbe

[Tue Jul 29 14:34:43 2003]
[System dynamics] is an approach that should help in important top-management problems
[Dinamika sustava] je pristup koji bi trebao biti od pomoći u važnim problemima vrhunskog menadžmenta

[Tue Jul 29 14:35:41 2003]
The solutions to small problems yield small rewards.
Rješenja malih problema daju male nagrade.

[Tue Jul 29 14:37:48 2003]
Very often the most important problems are but little more difficult to handle than the unimportant.
Vrlo često su najvažniji problemi tek nešto malo teži za riješiti od sporednih problema.

[Tue Jul 29 14:38:31 2003]
Many [people] predetermine mediocre results by setting initial goals too low.
Mnogi [ljudi] predodređuju prosječne rezultate tako što početne ciljeve postavljaju prenisko.

[Tue Jul 29 14:38:54 2003]
The attitude must be one of enterprise design.
Stav mora biti poduzetnički.

[Tue Jul 29 14:39:47 2003]
The expectation should be for major improvement .
Trebaju se očekivati velika poboljšanja.

[Tue Jul 29 14:39:49 2003]
The attitude that the goal is to explain behavior which is fairly common in academic circles,
Stav da je cilj objašnjavanje ponašanja, koji je prilično čest u akademskim krugovima,

[Tue Jul 29 14:41:22 2003]
is not sufficient.
nije dovoljan.

[Tue Jul 29 14:41:22 2003]
The goal should be to find management policies and organizational structures that lead to greater success
Cilj bi trebao biti pronalaženje politike upravljanja i organizacijskih struktura koje vode do većeg uspjeha

[Tue Jul 29 14:46:51 2003]
This chapter presents three case studies of the successful application of system dynamics to solve important real world problems.
Ovi poglavlje donosi tri analize pojedinačnih slučajeva uspješne primjene dinamike sustava u rješavanju važnih svjetskih problema.

[Tue Jul 29 14:51:29 2003]
The cases span a range of industries and issues.
Slučajevi obuhvaćaju niz privrednih grana i problema.

[Tue Jul 29 14:54:20 2003]
They illustrate different contexts for the use of system dynamics and different modeling processes, from large, data intensive models to small models, interactive management flight simulators, and role-playing games.
Oni ilustriraju različite kontekste za upotrebu dinamike sustava i različitih postupaka modeliranja, od velikih, podacima bogatih modela, do malih modela, simulatora leta interaktivnog menadžmenta i igranja uloga.

[Tue Jul 29 14:57:21 2003]
The cases illustrate how system dynamics can be used to help solve high-stakes problems in real time.
Slučajevi prikazuju kako dinamika sustava može biti korištena u rješavanju riskantnih problema u stvarnom vremenu.

[Tue Jul 29 14:57:21 2003]
The cases illustrate the principles discussed in chapter 1 and preview many of the tools and methods discussed in subsequent chapters
Slučajevi ilustriraju načela o kojima se raspravljalo u poglavlju 1 i daju uvid u mnoga oruđa i metode o kojima se raspravlja u kasnijim poglavljima

[Tue Jul 29 14:58:12 2003]
APPLICATIONS OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS
PRIMJENE DINAMIKE SUSTAVA

[Tue Jul 29 15:08:51 2003]
System dynamics can be applied to any dynamic system, with any time and spatial scale.
Dinamika sustava se može primijeniti na bilo koji dinamički sustav, u bilo kojem vremenskom i prostornom mjerilu.

[Tue Jul 29 15:08:51 2003]
In the world of business and public policy, system dynamics has been applied to industries from aircraft to zinc and issues from AIDS to welfare reform
U svijetu biznisa i javne politike, dinamika sustava se primjenjivala u raznim industrijama, od zrakoplova do cinka, i raznim problemima od AIDS-a do socijalne reforme

[Tue Jul 29 15:16:33 2003]
Developing an insightful model is difficult enough;
Razviti pronicav model je dovoljno teško;

[Tue Jul 29 15:18:48 2003]
using modeling to help change organizations and implement new policies is even harder.
još je teže koristiti modeliranje da se pomogne promijeniti organizacije i primijeniti nove strategije.

[Tue Jul 29 15:21:02 2003]
The greatest potential for improvement comes when the modeling process changes deeply held mental models.
Najveći potencijal za poboljšanje dolazi kad proces modeliranja promijeni čvrsto zadržane mentalne modele.

[Tue Jul 29 15:23:24 2003]
Yet the more fundamental the mental model you challenge, the more defensive the client may be.
No što je model koji izazivate fundamentalniji, to bi klijent mogao biti defenzivniji.

[Tue Jul 29 15:23:24 2003]
To resolve the dilemma the clients must discover the insights for themselves by active participation in the modeling process
Da se riješi ta dilema, klijenti sami za sebe moraju otkriti uvide, i to aktivnim sudjelovanjem u procesu modeliranja

[Tue Jul 29 15:31:48 2003]
This chapter presents three case studies illustrating the process.
Ovo poglavlje donosi tri analize pojedinačnih slučajeva koji ilustriraju postupak.

[Tue Jul 29 15:32:13 2003]
Each addressed an important real world issue.
Svaki je pristupio važnom i stvarnom problemu.

[Tue Jul 29 15:35:01 2003]
Each involved a different context and therefore used a different approach.
Svaki je uključivao drukčiji kontekst i stoga koristio drukčiji pristup.

[Tue Jul 29 15:35:01 2003]
Yet each also succeeded in involving the clients as partners in the modeling process, in changing long-established mental models, and in generating significant benefit
Ipak, svaki je uspio u uključivanju klijenata kao partnera u postupak modeliranja, u mijenjanju davno uspostavljenih mentalnih modela, i u stvaranju znatne koristi

[Tue Jul 29 15:54:16 2003]
In the 1990s a new way to buy cars emerged in the United States - the used car superstore.
Devedesetih se godina u Sjedinjenim Državama pojavio nov način kupovanja automobila - super-trgovina rabljenih auta.

[Tue Jul 29 15:55:17 2003]
National chains like CarMax and AutoNation offered a large selection of clean, low mileage late model cars with warranties, roadside assistance plans, and other amenities traditionally available only to new car buyers.
Nacionalni lanci poput CarMax-a i AutoNation-a nudili su velik izbor čistih, novih modela automobila s niskom kilometražom uz jamstva, programe za pomoć na cesti i druge pogodnosti koje su tradicionalno bile dostupne samo kupcima novih automobila.

[Tue Jul 29 15:56:20 2003]
Superstore sales grew from nothing in 1992 to more than $13 billion in 1998.
Prodaja super-trgovina je narasla od nule u 1992. godini na više od 13 milijardi dolara u 1998.

[Tue Jul 29 16:00:17 2003]
Internet car vendors began to spring up as well.
Počeli su navirati i prodavači automobila putem Interneta.

[Tue Jul 29 16:00:17 2003]
Many analysts believed the combination of superstores and internet sales heralded a revolution in the retail auto market
Mnogi analitičari su vjerovali da je kombinacija super-trgovina i Internet prodaje navijestila revoluciju u maloprodajnom trgovanju automobilima

[Tue Jul 29 16:06:10 2003]
In 1995 some senior managers at General Motors were concerned about the impact of the superstores on new car sales.
godine neke više menadžere u tvrtki General Motors je zabrinuo utjecaj super-trgovina na prodaju novih automobila.

[Tue Jul 29 16:07:55 2003]
Would they cut into GM's core market?
Hoće li se ubaciti u ključno tržište GM-a?

[Tue Jul 29 16:08:13 2003]
Would they force prices down?
Hoće li nametnuti snižavanje cijena?

[Tue Jul 29 16:12:54 2003]
How could GM respond?
Kako da GM reagira?

[Tue Jul 29 16:12:54 2003]
Ron Zarella, then vice president and group executive for North American vehicle sales, service, and marketing (VSSM) and later promoted to president of GM's North American region, needed a way to examine these issues
Ron Zarella, tada potpredsjednik i direktor skupine za prodaju, usluge, i plasiranje na tržište vozila u Sjevernoj Americi (VSSM), kasnije promaknut na mjesto predsjednika GM-a za sjevernoameričku regiju, je trebao način da ispita ove probleme

[Tue Jul 29 16:18:37 2003]
There was little research on the used car market available to help.
Nije bilo mnogo istraživanja tržišta rabljenih automobila koja bi mogla biti od pomoći.

[Tue Jul 29 16:19:39 2003]
For many decades the new and used car markets were only loosely coupled because people tended to keep their cars a long time.
Mnogo desetaka godina tržišta novih i rabljenih automobila su bila tek slabo povezana zato što su ljudi bili skloni dugo vremena zadržavati svoje automobile.

[Tue Jul 29 16:21:10 2003]
Market research in the early 1990s showed new car buyers were keeping their cars an average of more than 6 years.
Istraživanje tržišta ranih devedesetih je pokazalo da kupci novih automobila zadržavaju svoje automobile u prosjeku više od 6 godina.

[Tue Jul 29 16:21:10 2003]
The bulk of used cars offered for sale were 4 or more years old and were poor substitutes for new cars
Većina rabljenih automobila ponuđenih na prodaju su bili 4 ili više godina stari i bili su loša zamjena za nove automobile

[Tue Jul 29 16:24:27 2003]
Richardson (1996), Roberts (1978), and Morecroft and Sterman (1994), among others, provide examples of the application of system dynamics to important problems in a wide range of industrial and public policy issues.
Richardson (1996), Roberts (1978), i Morecroft i Sterman (1994), između ostalih, daju primjere primjene dinamike sustava kod važnih pitanja u širokom rasponu od industrijskih i problema javne politike.

[Tue Jul 29 16:24:43 2003]
Mosekilde (1996) describes applications in physics and biology.
Mosekilde (1996) opisuje primjene u fizici i biologiji.

[Tue Jul 29 16:24:43 2003]
Ford (1999) describes environmental applications
Ford (1999) opisuje ekološke primjene

[Tue Jul 29 16:28:44 2003]
This case is based on the work of the General Motors Strategy Support Center, led by Nick Pudar.
Ovaj slučaj se temelji na radu Centra za stratešku podršku General Motors-a, pod vodstvom Nicka Pudara.

[Tue Jul 29 16:28:44 2003]
I'm grateful to Nick and OM for permission to present the case and to Nick and Mark Paich for help in its preparation
Zahvaljujem se Nicku i GM-u na dopuštenju da prezentiram slučaj te Nicku i Marku Paichu na pomoći u njegovoj pripremi

[Tue Jul 29 16:35:36 2003]
The prevailing mental model in the auto industry, including GM, was that auto companies were in the business of selling new cars;
Prevladavajuća mentalna predodžba u automobilskoj industriji, uključujući GM, je bila da su automobilske tvrtke u poslu prodavanja novih automobila;

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