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[Tue Jul 29 16:37:06 2003]
the vehicles people traded in were old and effectively disappeared into a separate system, the used car market.
vozila kojima su ljudi trgovali su bila stara i uspješno su nestala u zasebnom sustavu, tržištu rabljenih automobila.
[Tue Jul 29 16:37:06 2003]
"There are really two markets - new and used, " the executive director of sales operations at Ford told The Wall Street Journal in 1994 (3 June, p. B I )
"Postoje zapravo dva tržišta - novih i rabljenih automobila", izjavio je izvršni direktor prodaje u Fordu za Wall Street Journal 1994. (3. lipanj, str. B I)
[Tue Jul 29 16:51:15 2003]
Zarella contacted Vince Barabba, then general manager of corporate strategy and knowledge development in the VSSM organization, and described his concerns.
Zarella je kontaktirao Vincea Barabbu, tada generalnog direktora strategije poduzeća i razvoja znanja u VSSM organizaciji, i opisao mu svoju zabrinutost.
[Tue Jul 29 16:57:17 2003]
Barabba, former head of the US Census Bureau, also headed up the Decision Support Center (DSC) and asked Nick Pudar, then a senior business analyst in the DSC, to work on the superstore issue.
Barabba, bivši šef Ureda za popis stanovništva SAD-a, također je predvodio Centar za podršku pri odlučivanju (DSC) i zamolio je Nicka Pudara, tada višeg poslovnog analitičara u DSC-u, da radi na pitanju super-trgovina.
[Tue Jul 29 16:57:17 2003]
The DSC is an internal group GM formed to help business units and project teams throughout the company develop and implement strategy
DSC je interna grupa koju GM oformio za pomoć poslovnim jedinicama i projektnim timovima u strategiji razvoja i primjenjivanja tvrtke
[Wed Jul 30 09:25:24 2003]
The DSC uses a variety of analytical tools, including system dynamics.
DSC koristi niz analitičkih alata, uključujući dinamiku sustava.
[Wed Jul 30 09:25:37 2003]
More than simply a group of analytical modelers, the DSC developed a sophisticated approach, the dialogue decision process, designed to build consensus that leads to action, not merely analysis and reports.
DSC, koji je više od samo grupe analitičkih modelatora, je razvio sofisticiran pristup, proces odlučivanja putem dijaloga, namijenjen kreiranju sporazuma koji će potaknuti akciju, a ne tek analizu i izvještaje.
[Wed Jul 30 09:25:37 2003]
Barabba and Pudar (1996) describe the dialogue decision process as
Barabba i Pudar (1996) opisuju proces odlučivanja putem dijaloga kao
[Wed Jul 30 09:29:30 2003]
a disciplined decision making process which involves a series of structured dialogues between two groups responsible for reaching a decision and implementing the resulting action plan.
discipliniran proces odlučivanja koji uključuje niz strukturiranih dijaloga između dviju grupa odgovornih za odlučivanje i provedbu rezultirajućeg plana djelovanja.
[Wed Jul 30 09:30:20 2003]
The first group (Decision Review Board) consists of the decision-makers, who generally represent different functions.
Prva grupa (Odbor za razmatranje odluka) se sastoji od donositelja odluka, koji općenito predstavljaju različite funkcije.
[Wed Jul 30 09:30:44 2003]
What they have in common is the authority to allocate resources:
Ono što imaju zajedničko je ovlaštenje da raspoređuju resurse:
[Wed Jul 30 09:31:36 2003]
people, capital, materials, time, and equipment.
ljude, kapital, materijale, vrijeme i opremu.
[Wed Jul 30 09:31:36 2003]
The second group (Core Team) consists of those with a stake in the implementation
Druga grupa (Glavni tim) se sastoji od onih koji imaju ulogu u provedbi
[Wed Jul 30 09:35:36 2003]
The dialogue between the two groups, which involves sharing and learning for both, takes place in four sequential stages:
Dijalog između te dvije grupe, koji uključuje dijeljenje i učenje za obje, odvija se u četiri sekvencijske faze:
[Wed Jul 30 09:40:34 2003]
Each of these four steps is completed by the Core Team and supported by facilitators equipped with decision analytic tools.
Svaki od ova četiri koraka ispunjava Glavni tim, a podržavaju koordinatori opremljeni analitičkim sredstvima odlučivanja.
[Wed Jul 30 09:43:11 2003]
At the end of each phase, they have a dialogue session with the Decision Review Board where they jointly review the progress.
Na kraju svake faze, imaju sastanak s Odborom za razmatranje odluka gdje zajednički ispituju napredak.
[Wed Jul 30 09:43:11 2003]
In an atmosphere of inquiry senior leadership converses with a cross-functional team of managers on a topic of mutual strategic importance
U atmosferi ispitivanja, starije vodstvo razgovara s međufunkcijskim timom menadžera na temu uzajamne strateške važnosti
[Wed Jul 30 09:47:38 2003]
Pudar told Zarella he would need to commit to a several hour meeting each week for a month " to be sure we are working on the right problem."
Pudar je rekao Zarelli da bi se trebao obvezati na višesatni sastanak svaki tjedan u idućih mjesec dana "kako bismo bili sigurni da radimo na pravom problemu."
[Wed Jul 30 09:47:38 2003]
While Zarella's schedule was extremely tight he offered to meet with Barabba and Pudar the next day
Iako je Zarella imao vrlo pretrpan raspored, predložio je Barabbi i Pudaru sastanak sljedeći dan
[Wed Jul 30 09:53:24 2003]
Pudar, working with Mark Paich, an external system dynamics consultant and professor of economics at Colorado College, Darren Post of the DSC, and Tom Paterson (another consultant to the DSC) scrambled to develop an initial model of the issue.
Pudar, koji je radio s Markom Paichom, savjetnikom za vanjsku dinamiku sustava i profesorom ekonomije na Učilištu Colorado, Darrenom Postom iz DSC-a, i Tomom Patersonom (još jednim savjetnikom iz DSC-a) se požurio razviti početni model problema.
[Wed Jul 30 09:55:04 2003]
That afternoon they developed a simple diagram representing the stocks and flows of cars through the new and used markets and some of the feedbacks that might couple them.
To poslijepodne su razvili jednostavan dijagram koji je predstavljao stokove i tokove automobila kroz tržište novih i rabljenih automobila i neke od povratnih informacija koje bi ih mogle povezivati.
[Wed Jul 30 09:55:04 2003]
They deliberately kept it very simple, both to be sure they could complete it in time and so they could explain it clearly
Namjerno su ga napravili vrlo jednostavnim, kako bi bili sigurni da će ga završiti na vrijeme i kako bi ga mogli jednostavno objasniti
[Wed Jul 30 10:03:50 2003]
That night Pudar developed a simple, working simulation model of the interactions between the new and used markets.
Te večeri je Pudar razvio jednostavan, radni simulacijski model interakcije između tržišta novih i rabljenih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:04:29 2003]
The model included sectors for new and used cars (divided into OM and non-OM vehicles) and tracked vehicles from production through initial sale or lease, trade-in, the used car market, and, ultimately, scrapping.
Model je uključivao područja za nove i rabljene automobile (podijeljene na GM-ova i ostala vozila) i pratio je vozila od proizvodnje kroz početnu prodaju ili zakup, razmjenu staro za novo, tržište rabljenih automobila i, konačno, bacanje.
[Wed Jul 30 10:06:02 2003]
It also tracked the flows of customers moving into and out
Također je pratio tokove kupaca koji su išli u i iz
[Wed Jul 30 10:06:55 2003]
of the market and included a simple consumer choice model for the new/used purchase decision.
tržišta uključivao je jednostavan potrošački model odabira pri odluci za kupnju novo/rabljeno.
[Wed Jul 30 10:06:55 2003]
Pudar used data at hand and his judgment to estimate parameters
Pudar je koristio podatke koje je imao pri ruci i svoju prosudbu pri procjeni parametara
[Wed Jul 30 10:12:16 2003]
Figure 2-1 shows a simplified diagram of the initial model.
Slika 2-1 prikazuje pojednostavljeni dijagram početnog modela.
[Wed Jul 30 10:13:22 2003]
The structure in black captures the prevailing mental model focused on the new car market.
Struktura u crnom obuhvaća prevladavajuću mentalnu predodžbu usredotočenu na tržište novih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:17:55 2003]
The left side tracks the stocks and flows of vehicles.
Lijeva strana prati stokove i tokove vozila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:19:09 2003]
Starting at the top, the inventory of unsold new cars is increased by production and drained by new car sales.
Počevši na vrhu, inventar neprodanih novih automobila se povećava proizvodnjom i iscrpljuje prodajom novih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:20:24 2003]
New car sales add to the stock of late model cars on the road.
Prodaja novih automobila povećava stok novijih modela automobila na cestama.
[Wed Jul 30 10:20:24 2003]
People sell or trade in their car and buy a new one with a frequency defined by the average trade-in time
Ljudi prodaju ili razmjenuju svoj automobil i kupuju novi frekvencijom koja je definirana prosječnim vremenom razmjene staro za novo
[Wed Jul 30 10:26:28 2003]
Figure 2-1 also shows the main feedbacks operating in the new car market.
Slika 2-1 također prikazuje glavne povratne reakcije koje djeluju na tržištu novih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:28:04 2003]
Manufacturers and dealers pay close attention to the stock of new cars.
Proizvođači i trgovci osobito paze na stok novih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:29:05 2003]
Inventory coverage of about 45 days provides a good balance between the selection available on dealer lots and carrying costs.
Pokrivenost zaliha od oko 45 pruža dobru ravnotežu između izbora dostupnog u trgovačkoj ponudi i prijenosnih troškova.
[Wed Jul 30 10:30:53 2003]
Low coverage hurts sales because cars aren't available;
Slaba pokrivenost šteti prodaji zato što automobili nisu na raspolaganju;
[Wed Jul 30 10:32:05 2003]
high inventories slash dealer and automaker profits as carrying costs balloon.
visoki inventari smanjuju profit trgovaca i proizvođača automobila kako se prijenosni troškovi napuhavaju.
[Wed Jul 30 10:33:44 2003]
If inventory coverage rises above normal, carmakers cut production, which helps reduce inventories back to normal.
Ako pokrivenost naraste iznad normale, proizvođači automobila smanjuju proizvodnju, što pomaže da se zalihe vrate u normalu.
[Wed Jul 30 10:34:33 2003]
The response of production to inventories forms the negative (balancing) Production Control feedback loop, B1.
Reakcija proizvodnje na zalihe stvara negativnu (balansirajuću) petlju povratne veze Kontrole proizvodnje , B1.
[Wed Jul 30 10:36:54 2003]
However, automakers are reluctant to cut production and in any case, it takes time.
Međutim, proizvođači automobila se ustručavaju srezati proizvodnju i, u svakom slučaju, za to treba vremena.
[Wed Jul 30 10:36:54 2003]
The delay in adjusting production means inventories tend to fluctuate around desired levels as demand varies
Odgađanje prilagodbe proizvodnje značiti da zalihe imaju tendenciju fluktuirati oko željenih razina kako potražnja varira
[Wed Jul 30 10:47:39 2003]
The second main response to excess inventories is lower prices.
Drugi glavni odgovor na prekomjerne zalihe su niže cijene.
[Wed Jul 30 10:48:34 2003]
When inventory coverage is high, dealers are more willing to cut their margins and manufacturers offer incentives such as cash-back and low annual percentage rates (APRs) on loans financed through their credit divisions.
Kada je pokrivenost zaliha visoka, trgovci su voljniji smanjiti marže, a proizvođači nude poticaje kao na primjer povrat gotovine i niske godišnje kamatne stope (APR-e) na kredite financirane kroz njihove kreditne odjele.
[Wed Jul 30 10:48:51 2003]
Lower prices make new cars more attractive relative to the cars people already own.
Niže cijene čine nove automobile atraktivnijima o udnosu na automobile koje ljudi već posjeduju.
[Wed Jul 30 10:50:15 2003]
People trade in their
Ljudi razmjenjivati svoja
[Wed Jul 30 10:50:15 2003]
old cars sooner, boosting new car sales until inventories fall back to normal (the negative Pricing loop, B2)
stare automobile, potičući prodaju novih automobila dok se zalihe ne vrate na normalu (negativna petlja Formiranja cijena, B2)
[Wed Jul 30 10:59:20 2003]
Challenging the conventional wisdom, the team expanded the stock and flow structure to include late model used cars.
Prkoseći uobičajenom gledanju, tim je proširio strukturu stoka i toka da uključi novije modele rabljenih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 10:59:53 2003]
Instead of disappearing, trade-ins add to inventories of late model used cars on dealer lots or available for auction.
Umjesto nestajanja, razmjene staro za novo povećavaju zalihe novijih modela rabljenih automobila u trgovačkoj ponudi ili na raspolaganju za dražbu.
[Wed Jul 30 11:01:45 2003]
When these cars are purchased, they reenter the stock of late model cars on the road.
Kad se ovi automobili kupe, oni ponovo ulaze u stok novijih modela automobila na cesti.
[Wed Jul 30 11:03:24 2003]
The sum of the cars on the road and cars on dealer lots is the total stock of late model vehicles (shown by the large rectangle in Figure 2-1);
Zbroj automobila na cesti i automobila u trgovačkoj ponudi je ukupan stok novijih modela vozila (prikazan velikim pravokutnikom na Slici 2-1);
[Wed Jul 30 11:04:59 2003]
these cars gradually age into the population of older cars and are eventually scrapped.
ti automobili postupno prelaze u skupinu starijih automobila i s vremenom se odbacuju.
[Wed Jul 30 11:06:08 2003]
The model used an "aging chain" to keep track of the cars on the road and in used car inventories by 1-year
Model je koristio "lanac starenja" za praćenje automobila na cesti i u zalihama rabljenih automobila od strane 1-godišnji
[Wed Jul 30 11:08:25 2003]
The aging chain (chapter 12) allowed the team to examine how the number of 1-,2-, and 3-year-old cars on the road and for sale changed in response to sales
Lanac starenja (poglavlje 12) je omogućio timu da ispita kako se broj automobila na cesti i za prodaju, starih jednu, dvije i tri godine, promijenio kao reakcija na prodaju
[Wed Jul 30 11:13:05 2003]
The stock and flow perspective motivated the modeling team to ask where the superstores got the large inventories of attractive late model cars they required.
Perspektiva stoka i toka je motivirala dizajnerski tim da pita gdje su super-trgovine nabavljale velike zalihe atraktivnih novih modela automobila koje su trebale.
[Wed Jul 30 11:15:27 2003]
Part of the answer was the growing quality of new cars.
Dio odgovora je bio u sve većoj kvaliteti novih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 11:17:14 2003]
Stimulated by the high quality of foreign cars, particularly the Japanese imports, all manufacturers had invested in major quality programs.
Potaknuti visokom kvalitetom stranih automobila, osobito onih uvezenih iz Japana, svi proizvođači su investirali u programe visoke kvalitete.
[Wed Jul 30 11:17:14 2003]
Though there was still room for improvement, by the 1990s the quality and durability of new cars was significantly higher than in the 1980s
Iako je još bilo prostora za poboljšanje, u devedesetima su kvaliteta i trajnost novih automobila bile znatno bolje nego u osamdesetima
[Wed Jul 30 11:21:28 2003]
Rectangles represent stocks of cars;
Pravokutnici predstavljaju stokove automobila;
[Wed Jul 30 11:22:00 2003]
pipes and valves represent flows between categories (chapter 6).
cijevi i ventili predstavljaju tokove između kategorija (poglavlje 6).
[Wed Jul 30 11:22:56 2003]
Arrows and polarities (+ or -) indicate causal influences:
Strelice i polariteti (+ ili) ukazuju na kauzalne utjecaje:
[Wed Jul 30 11:23:33 2003]
An increase in New Car Inventory leads to an increase in Inventory Coverage (and a decrease leads to a decrease);
Povećanje zalihe novih automobila dovodi do povećanja Pokrivenosti zaliha (a smanjenje dovodi do smanjenja);
[Wed Jul 30 11:23:41 2003]
an increase (decrease) in Inventory Coverage causes new car prices to decrease (increase);
povećanje (smanjenje) u Pokrivenosti zaliha uzrokuje da se cijene novih automobila smanje (povećaju);
[Wed Jul 30 11:26:06 2003]
Gray structure was not captured in the prevailing industry mental model in which new and used car markets do not interact
Siva struktura nije bila obuhvaćena u prevladavajućoj mentalnoj predodžbi industrije u kojoj tržišta novih i rabljenih automobila ne djeluju jedno na drugo
[Wed Jul 30 11:27:18 2003]
Production
Proizvodnja
[Wed Jul 30 11:27:28 2003]
New Car Inventory
Zalihe novih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:27:37 2003]
New Car Sales
Prodaja novih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:27:48 2003]
Late Model Cars
Novi modeli automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:28:09 2003]
Late Model Cars on Road
Novi modeli automobila na cesti
[Wed Jul 30 11:28:15 2003]
Late Model Used Car Sales
Prodaja novijih modela rabljenih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:28:42 2003]
Trade-In
Razmjena staro za novo
[Wed Jul 30 11:28:52 2003]
Late Model Used Car Inventory
Zalihe novijih modela rabljenih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:28:57 2003]
Aging Rate
Stopa starenja
[Wed Jul 30 11:29:18 2003]
Older Cars
Stariji automobili
[Wed Jul 30 11:29:31 2003]
Scrap Rate
Stopa odbacivanja
[Wed Jul 30 11:29:44 2003]
Production Control
Kontrola proizvodnje
[Wed Jul 30 11:29:56 2003]
Inventory Coverage
Pokrivenost zaliha
[Wed Jul 30 11:31:17 2003]
Lease Term
Trajanje lizinga
[Wed Jul 30 11:31:17 2003]
Lease Subvention
Zakup Subvencija
[Wed Jul 30 11:32:40 2003]
Pricing
Određivanje cijena
[Wed Jul 30 11:32:58 2003]
Subvention
Subvencioniranje
[Wed Jul 30 11:33:41 2003]
New Car price & APR
Cijena novih automobila i godišnja kamatna stopa
[Wed Jul 30 11:34:03 2003]
Average Trade-In Time
Prosječno vrijeme razmjene staro za novo
[Wed Jul 30 11:35:11 2003]
Relative Attractiveness of New Cars
Relativna atraktivnost novih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:35:17 2003]
Off-Lease Retention Fraction
Zadržani dio bez zakupa
[Wed Jul 30 11:35:49 2003]
Used Car Quality
Kvaliteta rabljenih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:36:39 2003]
Attractiveness of Late Model Cars
Atraktivnost novih modela automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:36:41 2003]
Purchase Option
Opcija kupnje
[Wed Jul 30 11:36:45 2003]
Used Car Market
Tržište rabljenih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:36:45 2003]
Used Car Price
Cijena rabljenog automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:41:06 2003]
But quality improvement alone could not explain the rise of the superstores.
Ali samo poboljšanje kvalitete nije moglo objasniti porast super-trgovina.
[Wed Jul 30 11:42:18 2003]
By the time most cars are traded in they are too old to compete against new cars and are unsuitable for the superstores.
U vrijeme kad se većina automobila razmjenjuje, već su prestari da bi se mogli mjeriti s novim automobilima i nisu prikladni za super-trgovine.
[Wed Jul 30 11:42:18 2003]
Quality improvements might even lengthen the trade-in cycle time, reducing the supply of late model used cars
Poboljšanja u kvaliteti bi čak mogla produžiti trajanje ciklusa razmjene staro za novo, smanjujući zalihe novijih modela rabljenih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 11:48:34 2003]
The answer was leasing.
Odgovor je bio leasing.
[Wed Jul 30 11:49:36 2003]
In the early 1990s leasing was the hot new marketing tool in the automobile industry.
U ranim devedesetima leasing je bio najnovije marketinško sredstvo u automobilskoj industriji.
[Wed Jul 30 11:51:38 2003]
Leasing offered what seemed to be a sure-fire way to boost sales.
Leasing je nudio ono što se činilo sigurnim načinom da se potakne prodaja.
[Wed Jul 30 11:53:45 2003]
Rising quality meant the market value of 2-, 3-, and 4-year-old cars was much higher relative to new cars than in the past.
Rastuća kvaliteta je značila da je tržišna vrijednost automobila starih dvije, tri i četiri godine bila mnogo veća u odnosu na nove automobile u prošlosti.
[Wed Jul 30 11:56:20 2003]
The higher the residual value at the end of a lease, the lower the lease payments.
Što je veća preostala vrijednost na kraju zakupa, to su manje rate leasinga.
[Wed Jul 30 11:58:04 2003]
Leases also give customers the option to buy the car when the lease expires at the specified residual value, transferring the risk of fluctuations in the market value of used vehicles from the customer to the carmaker.
Zakupi također pružaju kupcima mogućnost kupnje automobila kad zakup istekne po određenoj preostaloj vrijednosti, prebacujući rizik fluktuacija u tržišnoj vrijednosti korištenih vozila s kupca na proizvođača automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 11:59:26 2003]
Most important to the manufacturers, typical lease terms are 2 to 4 years, stimulating sales by cutting the trade-in cycle time.
I najvažnije za proizvođače, tipično trajanje leasinga je 2 do 4 godine, stimulirajući prodaju smanjivanjem trajanja ciklusa razmjene staro za novo.
[Wed Jul 30 12:02:35 2003]
From the perspective of the prevailing mental model, leasing was a boon.
Iz perspektive prevladavajuće mentalne predodžbe, leasing je bio blagodat.
[Wed Jul 30 12:07:20 2003]
First, it stimulated sales.
Prvo, poticao je prodaju.
[Wed Jul 30 12:08:31 2003]
Whenever inventories rise carmakers could increase incentives for leasing through lease subvention.
Kada god zalihe narastu, proizvođači automobila bi mogli povećati poticaje za lesing kroz subvenciju zakupa.
[Wed Jul 30 12:14:52 2003]
Subvention lowers lease payments by assuming higher residuals, lower interest rates, or lower initial capitalization;
Subvencija smanjuje otplatu leasinga, pretpostavljajući viši iznosi ostatka, niže kamate ili nižu početnu kapitalizaciju;
[Wed Jul 30 12:14:52 2003]
typically carmakers would raise residual values above guidebook values for used cars
obično bi proizvođači automobila podigli preostale vrijednosti iznad tipičnih vrijednosti za rabljene automobile
[Wed Jul 30 12:23:37 2003]
Lower lease payments boost the attractiveness of new cars and induce some people to trade their current car for a new leased vehicle (forming the balancing Lease Incentive loop B3 in Figure 2-1).
Niže rate otplate leasinga povećavaju atraktivnost novih automobila i potiču neke ljude da zamijene svoj sadašnji automobil za novo vozilo u najmu (formirajući ujednačeno kruženje poticanja lizinga B3 na Slici 2-1).
[Wed Jul 30 12:25:20 2003]
Second, the shorter the average lease term, the shorter the trade-in time and the greater the sales (the balancing Lease Term loop B4).
Drugo, što je kraće prosječno trajanje lizinga, kraće je vrijeme razmjene staro za novo, a prodaja je veća (ujednačeno kruženje trajanja lizinga B4).
[Wed Jul 30 12:25:20 2003]
If all new car buyers switched to leases with an average term of 3 years, the trade-in cycle time would be cut in half and new car sales would double - all else equal
Kad bi se svi kupci novih automobila prebacili na zakupe s prosječnim rokom od 3 godine, trajanje ciklusa razmjene staro za novo bi bilo prepolovljeno i prodaja novih automobila bi se udvostručila - uz sve ostalo jednako
[Wed Jul 30 12:31:01 2003]
The modeling team quickly challenged the assumption that all else was equal.
Dizajnerski tim je brzo pobio pretpostavku da je sve ostalo jednako.
[Wed Jul 30 12:32:15 2003]
While a 6-year old car is a poor substitute for a new car, a 1- to 3-year-old car with low mileage might be attractive to many people.
Dok je šest godina star automobil loša zamjena za novi auto, automobil star jednu do tri godine, s niskom kilometražom bi mnogima mogao biti atraktivan.
[Wed Jul 30 12:33:20 2003]
As the growing volume of leases expired the used car market could be flooded with high-quality nearly new cars.
Kako sve veća količina zakupa ističe, tržište rabljenih automobila bi moglo biti preplavljeno visoko kvalitetnim i gotovo novim automobilima.
[Wed Jul 30 12:36:52 2003]
Used car prices might plummet.
Cijene rabljenih automobila bi mogle naglo pasti.
[Wed Jul 30 12:37:23 2003]
Some people who might have traded their current cars for new ones opt instead for off-lease vehicles, raising the average trade-in time and returning more late model used cars to the stock of cars on the road (the balancing Used Car Market loop, B5).
Neki ljudi, koji bi mogli zamijeniti svoje sadašnjim automobile za nove, odlučuju se umjesto toga za vozila bez lizinga, podižući prosječno vrijeme razmjene staro za novo i vraćajući više novih modela rabljenih automobila u stok automobila na cesti (balansirajuća petlja Tržišta rabljenih automobila , B5).
[Wed Jul 30 12:38:30 2003]
Leasing also shortens the average trade-in cycle time, raising the average quality of used cars for sale.
Lizing također skraćuje prosječno trajanje ciklusa razmjene staro za novo, podižući prosječnu kvaliteta rabljenih automobila koji su na prodaju.
[Wed Jul 30 12:38:30 2003]
More people opt for off-lease vehicles instead of buying new
Sve više ljudi odabire vozila bez lizinga umjesto kupnje novih
[Wed Jul 30 12:45:53 2003]
The average trade-in time for the population as a whole rises, forming the balancing Used Car Quality loop, B6.
Prosječno vrijeme razmjene staro za novo za ukupnu populaciju raste, formirajući ujednačeno kruženje kvalitete rabljenih automobila, B6.
[Wed Jul 30 12:47:14 2003]
Even more interesting, the used market could feed back to affect the fraction of customers who choose to buy their car when their lease expires.
Još zanimljivije, tržište rabljenih automobila bi moglo uzvratiti tako da utječe na dio kupaca koji se odlučuju na kupnju svog automobila kad im zakup istekne.
[Wed Jul 30 12:47:40 2003]
If, at lease end, used car prices are higher than the residual value written into the lease, the customer can purchase the car below market value.
Ako su na kraju zakupa cijene rabljenih automobila više od preostale vrijednosti upisane u zakup, kupac može kupiti automobil ispod tržišne vrijednosti.
[Wed Jul 30 12:48:20 2003]
The customer retention fraction would rise.
Zadržani dio kupaca bi narastao.
[Wed Jul 30 12:49:41 2003]
If, however, used car prices dropped below residual values, the retention fraction would fall as
Međutim, ako bi cijene rabljenih automobila pale ispod preostalih vrijednosti, zadržani dio bi pao kako
[Wed Jul 30 12:49:41 2003]
more customers turned their cars back to the lessor
bi sve više kupaca vratilo svoje automobile davateljima lizinga
[Wed Jul 30 12:59:35 2003]
The inventory of late model cars would rise and used car prices would drop still more, in a vicious cycle, the positive (self-reinforcing) Purchase Option loop
Zalihe novijih modela automobila bi se povećale i cijene rabljenih automobila bi još više pale, u začaranom krugu, pozitivne (samo-pojačavajuće) petlje Opcije kupnje
[Wed Jul 30 13:03:58 2003]
However, the feedbacks shown in gray operate with a long delay (roughly equal to the average lease term) and were poorly understood in the industry.
Međutim, povratne sprege prikazane u sivoj boji djeluju s dugom odgodom (otprilike jednako prosječnom trajanju lizinga) i bile su loše shvaćene u grani industrije.
[Wed Jul 30 14:11:42 2003]
Leasing stimulates sales in the short-run.
Lizing kratkotrajno stimulira prodaju.
[Wed Jul 30 14:11:42 2003]
Unaware of the structure shown in gray in Figure 2-1, the experience of the early 1990s taught carmakers that leasing works - and they diverted still more marketing dollars to subvention and shorter terms
Nesvjesni strukture prikazane sivom bojom na Slici 2-1, proizvođači automobila su naučili iz iskustva ranih devedesetih da lizing funkcionira - i usmjerili su još više marketinških dolara u subvencije i kraće rokove
[Wed Jul 30 14:16:12 2003]
Initial results suggested, however, that leasing would eventually create a glut of high-quality nearly new cars, depressing late model used car prices.
Međutim, početni rezultati su sugerirali da bi lizing s vremenom stvorio zasićenost tržišta visoko kvalitetnim gotovo novim automobilima, spuštajući cijene novijih modela rabljenih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 14:20:42 2003]
New car sales would suffer as more consumers opted for cheap off-lease vehicles.
Prodaja novih automobila bi sve više trpila, kako bi se sve više potrošača odlučivalo za jeftina vozila bez lizinga.
[Wed Jul 30 14:20:42 2003]
The carmakers' credit companies (General Motors Acceptance Corporation [GMAC], Ford Credit Corporation and Chrysler Credit Corporation) would face losses as market values fell short of the residual value they had booked and as fewer consumers exercised their option to buy, turning the car back to the lessors instead
Kreditne tvrtke proizvođača automobila (Akceptna korporacija General Motorsa [GMAC], Fordova kreditna korporacija i Chryslerova kreditna korporacija) bi se suočile s gubicima jer tržišne vrijednosti ne bi dosegle preostale vrijednosti koje su bile predbilježene, i jer bi sve manje potrošača prakticiralo mogućnost kupnje, umjesto toga vraćajući automobil davatelju lizinga
[Wed Jul 30 14:24:14 2003]
The following day Pudar and his team presented these results to Zarella, including the structure of the initial model and simulations showing the problems aggressive leasing could cause.
Idući dan su Pudar i njegov tim pokazali te rezultate Zarelli, uključujući strukturu početnog modela i simulacije koje su pokazivale probleme koje bi mogao uzrokovati agresivan lizing.
[Wed Jul 30 14:25:37 2003]
By shortening trade-in cycle times through leasing and fleet sales, carmakers were creating a glut of high-quality used cars at attractive prices.
Skraćujući trajanje ciklusa razmjene staro za novo kroz lizing i prodaju voznog parka, proizvođači automobila su stvarali zasićenost tržišta visoko kvalitetnim automobilima s atraktivnim cijenama.
[Wed Jul 30 14:25:37 2003]
Superstores were simply the market response to the opportunity the manufacturers themselves had created
Super-trgovine su jednostavno bile odgovor tržišta na prilike koje su stvorili sami proizvođači
[Wed Jul 30 14:30:19 2003]
Used cars were only the symptom of a deeper problem - the leasing policies of the carmakers.
Rabljeni automobili su bili samo simptom dubljeg problema - politike lizinga proizvođača automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 14:31:38 2003]
Leasing increased sales in the short run but set in motion feedbacks that caused sales to slump when the leased vehicles reentered the market.
Lizing je kratkoročno povećao prodaju, ali je potakao povratne reakcije koje su uzrokovale osjetan pad prodaje kad su iznajmljena vozila ponovo ušla na tržište.
[Wed Jul 30 14:32:09 2003]
In the old days, people kept their cars long enough that trade-ins effectively disappeared from concern.
Nekad su ljudi zadržavali automobile dovoljno dugo da razmjene staro za novo nisu bile razlog za zabrinutost.
[Wed Jul 30 14:32:09 2003]
But in a world of short-term leases, new cars are gone today, here tomorrow
Ali u svijetu kratkoročnih lizinga, novi automobili danas nisu, sutra jesu
[Wed Jul 30 14:36:51 2003]
The realization that superstores were an endogenous consequence of the carmakers' own actions dramatically redefined the focus of the work.
Spoznaja da su super-trgovine bile endogena posljedica akcija samih proizvođača automobila dramatično je redefinirala fokus djelovanja.
[Wed Jul 30 14:36:51 2003]
Initial model analysis suggested GM should de-emphasize leasing, exactly counter to industry trends
Analiza početnog modela je sugerirala da bi GM trebao maknuti naglasak s lizinga, upravo suprotno trendovima u industriji
[Wed Jul 30 14:41:20 2003]
These effects may seem obvious (especially now that you have read the description of the model above), and auto industry executives did know that some off-lease cars would reenter the market.
Ovi utjecaji se mogu činiti očitima (posebno sad kad ste pročitali opis gornjeg modela), i direktori u automobilskoj industriji su znali da će neki automobili bez lizinga ponovo ući na tržište.
[Wed Jul 30 14:43:25 2003]
However, most discounted the possibility of any problems.
Međutim, većina ih je s rezervom uzela mogućnost pojave bilo kakvih problema.
[Wed Jul 30 14:45:25 2003]
Lease-end cars have 'not created a bottleneck in the industry " (2 November)
Automobili pri kraju lizinga 'nisu stvorili usko grlo u industriji'" (2. studenog)
[Wed Jul 30 14:53:39 2003]
The Purchase Option loop is partially offset because customers turning their cars back to lessors purchase another vehicle.
Petlja Opcije kupnje djelomično pada zato što kupci koji vraćaju svoje automobile davateljima lizinga kupuju druga vozila.
[Wed Jul 30 14:55:03 2003]
If lease customers used their purchase option to make a pure arbitrage play when used car prices fell below residual values by turning their cars in and immediately buying identical ones at the lower market price, then the net effect of changes in the retention fraction would be zero.
Kad bi korisnici lizinga iskoristili svoju opciju kupnje za čisto arbitražnu igru kad cijene rabljenih automobila padnu ispod preostalih vrijednosti, vraćanjem svojih automobila i automatskim kupovanjem identičnih po nižoj tržišnoj cijeni, tada bi neto efekt promjena u zadržanom dijelu bio nula.
[Wed Jul 30 14:58:46 2003]
However, some customers turning their cars back to lessors will buy a new car or different used car, possibly from a competitor.
Međutim, neki korisnici koji vraćaju svoje automobile davateljima lizinga će kupiti novi automobil ili drukčiji rabljeni automobil, možda i od konkurenta.
[Wed Jul 30 14:59:45 2003]
On net a lower retention fraction for a given make and model will tend to push prices for that car down still more, triggering even lower retention.
U neto iznosu, manji zadržani dio za određenu marku i model će imati tendenciju još većeg srozavanja cijena za taj automobil, pokrećući još manje zadržavanje.
[Wed Jul 30 14:59:45 2003]
These effects were captured in the full model but for clarity are not shown in Figure
Ovi efekti su bili obuhvaćeni u punom modelu, ali zbog jasnoće nisu prikazani na Slici
[Wed Jul 30 15:08:31 2003]
A Detroit-area Cadillac dealer dismissed any linkage between the new and used markets for high-end cars, scoffing, "You'll never get a luxury buyer to take a car with 30,000 miles on it" (The Wall Street Journal, 3 June 1994).
Jedan distributer Cadillaca za područje Detroita je odbacio bilo kakvu vezu između tržišta novih i rabljenih vrhunskih automobila, izrugujući se, "Nikad nećete naći kupca luksuznih proizvoda koji bi uzeo automobil s prijeđenih 30 000 milja" (Wall Street Journal, 3. lipnja 1994).
[Wed Jul 30 15:08:31 2003]
In the same article, The Journal went on to note that Ford's executive director of sales operations
U istom članku, Journal navodi da izvršni direktor prodaje u Fordu
[Wed Jul 30 15:16:00 2003]
argues that the industry has had a chronic shortage of good two-year-old cars to sell .
argumentira kroničnu nestašicu u industriji dobrih, dvije godine starih automobila za prodaju.
[Wed Jul 30 15:17:42 2003]
"This [short-term leasing] brings the cars back at just the right time, when demand is highest," he says.
" Taj [kratkoročan lizing] vraća automobile natrag baš u pravo vrijeme, kad je potražnja najveća" kaže.
[Wed Jul 30 15:20:05 2003]
Moreover, the used-car market is at least twice as big as the new-car market and can easily absorb the projected volumes.
Osim toga, tržište rabljenih automobila je barem dvaput veće od tržišta novih automobila i lako može apsorbirati planirane količine.
[Wed Jul 30 15:21:13 2003]
The underlying strength in used-car demand will safely absorb the volume of used vehicles coming off lease, without cannibalizing new-car sales," predicts .
Temeljna snaga u potražnji za rabljenim automobilima će sigurno apsorbirati količinu rabljenih vozila kojima ističe lizing, bez smanjivanja prodaje novih automobila, " predviđa.
[Wed Jul 30 15:28:49 2003]
There appeared to be ample evidence to support these views.
Činilo se da ima mnogo dokaza u korist ovih stavova.
[Wed Jul 30 15:29:42 2003]
Used car sales grew from 37.5 million in 1990 to nearly 42 million in 1995 while 1995 new car sales were about 15 million, a rise of only about a million vehicles/year since 1990.
godine do gotovo 42 milijuna 1995, dok je 1995. prodaja novih automobila bila oko 15 milijuna, što je porast od samo oko milijun vozila godišnje od 1990.
[Wed Jul 30 15:30:33 2003]
Used car prices rose more than 6%/year between 1990 and 1995, much faster than inflation.
Cijene rabljenih automobila su rasle više od 6% na godinu između 1990. i 1995, mnogo brže od inflacije.
[Wed Jul 30 15:32:49 2003]
With rising used car prices, more and more people opted to keep their vehicle when their lease expired.
S rastućim cijenama rabljenih automobila, sve više ljudi se odlučivalo zadržati svoje vozilo nakon isteka lizinga.
[Wed Jul 30 15:32:49 2003]
Many in the industry, including GM, argued that strong demand and rising used car values justified even higher residual values, allowing lower lease payments and boosting new car sales still more
Mnogi u industriji, uključujući GM, su tvrdili da jaka potražnja i rastuće vrijednosti rabljenih automobila opravdavaju još više preostale vrijednosti, dopuštajući niže rate lizinga i još više potičući prodaju novih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 15:39:45 2003]
While the initial results were intriguing, more work was needed before credible policy recommendations could be made, much less any action taken.
Dok su početni rezultati bili zanimljivi, trebalo je još raditi prije no što su se mogle donijeti vjerodostojne preporuke politike, a kamoli poduzeti neka akcija.
[Wed Jul 30 15:42:28 2003]
Even if leasing was a devil's bargain, every carmaker felt strong pressure to match the terms and prices of its competitors.
Čak i ako je lizing bio pogodba s vragom, svaki proizvođač automobila je osjećao snažan pritisak da se prilagodi uvjetima i cijenama svojih konkurenata.
[Wed Jul 30 15:43:31 2003]
Once all major manufacturers were offering short lease terms with aggressive subvention, unilaterally backing away from leasing might risk too much market share.
Kad su svi glavni proizvođači nudili kratkoročan lizing s jakom subvencijom, jednostrano odustajanje od lizinga bi moglo staviti na kocku previše tržišnog udjela.
[Wed Jul 30 15:46:25 2003]
Zarella asked the team to continue the modeling to address these questions.
Zarella je tražio da tim nastavi s modeliranjem tako da se dotaknu ova pitanja.
[Wed Jul 30 15:46:37 2003]
The DSC formed a decision review board, chaired by Zarella and Barabba, to oversee the project and the modeling team then began to refine the model and gather the data needed to calibrate it.
DSC je oformio Odbor za razmatranje odluka, kojim su predsjedali Zarella i Barabba, za nadzor projekta i dizajnerski tim je tad počeo dotjeravati model i prikupljati podatke potrebne za korigiranje.
[Wed Jul 30 15:46:37 2003]
They had 20 days
Za to su imali 20 dana
[Wed Jul 30 15:51:11 2003]
The modeling team interviewed people throughout the organization to understand the issues and gather data.
Dizajnerski tim je intervjuirao ljude u organizaciji da shvati problem i prikupi podatke.
[Wed Jul 30 15:51:11 2003]
Through the meetings of the core and modeling teams they opened up the model to critical review and presented interim results for discussion
Kroz sastanke glavnog i dizajnerskog tima, podvrgli su model kritičnom pregledu i iznijeli međurezultate na raspravu
[Wed Jul 30 15:55:31 2003]
One area for improvement was the treatment of the competition and segmentation of the market into different vehicle types.
Jedno područje gdje je moglo doći do poboljšanja je bilo postupanje s konkurencijom i segmentacija tržišta u drugačije tipove vozila.
[Wed Jul 30 15:57:13 2003]
Some argued for explicit treatment of every major manufacturer and market segment.
Neki su zagovarali izričitu obradu svakog glavnog proizvođača i segmenta tržišta.
[Wed Jul 30 15:58:19 2003]
Brand loyalty is important:
Odanost marki je važna:
[Wed Jul 30 16:02:10 2003]
People who bought GM cars last time are more likely to buy another GM car than non-GM owners.
Ljudi koji su prije kupili GM automobili će vjerojatnije kupiti i drugi GM automobil nego vlasnici ostalih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 16:05:27 2003]
They also argued that GM customers were different from Ford or Ronda customers and that markets for luxury cars, family sedans, sport utility vehicles, and so on were all different.
Također su tvrdili da se korisnici GM-a razlikuju od korisnika Forda ili Ronde i da su tržišta za luksuzne automobile, obiteljske sedane, univerzalna sportska vozila, i tako dalje, sva različita.
[Wed Jul 30 16:06:01 2003]
The team countered that the data requirements for such a detailed model would be enormous and would delay development of a useful model.
Tim je pobio tvrdnju da bi zahtjevi za podacima za takav podroban model bili golemi i da bi odgodili razvoj korisnog modela.
[Wed Jul 30 16:07:25 2003]
They preferred an iterative approach, with more limited disaggregation;
Preferirali su iterativan pristup, s ograničenijom razrađenosti;
[Wed Jul 30 16:07:25 2003]
if sensitivity analysis showed that further segmentation was needed they could then revise the model to include more detail
ako bi analiza osjetljivosti pokazala da je potrebna daljnja segmentacija, tad bi mogli promijeniti model tako da sadrži više detalja
[Wed Jul 30 16:15:46 2003]
Another important area of discussion was disaggregation of the customer base.
Još jedno važno područje rasprave je bila razrađenost evidencije kupaca.
[Wed Jul 30 16:17:07 2003]
Parallel to the flow of cars between the "on the road" and "for sale" stocks are stocks and flows of drivers.
Usporedno s tokom automobila između stokova "na cesti" i "za prodaju" su stokovi i tokovi vozača.
[Wed Jul 30 16:19:01 2003]
Every car traded in moves a customer from "on the road" to "in the market;"
Svaki razmijenjeni automobil pomiče klijenta iz "na cesti" do "na tržištu;"
[Wed Jul 30 16:20:02 2003]
every new or used car sold puts a driver on the road again.
svaki prodani novi ili rabljeni automobil vraća vozača natrag na cestu.
[Wed Jul 30 16:20:38 2003]
Changes in the relative attractiveness of new and used cars shift the proportion of drivers in the market opting for a new car.
Promijene u relativnoj atraktivnosti novih i rabljenih automobila mijenjaju udio vozača na tržištu koji se odlučuju za novi automobil.
[Wed Jul 30 16:23:03 2003]
The choice between new and used vehicles also depends on their past behavior.
Odabir između novih i rabljenih vozila također ovisi o njihovom ponašanju u prošlosti.
[Wed Jul 30 16:24:25 2003]
The chance a customer will lease, buy new, or buy used depends on whether he or she leased, bought new, or bought used last time.
Izgledi hoće li klijent uzeti u zakup, kupiti novi, ili kupiti rabljeni auto ovise o tome je li prošli put uzeo u zakup, kupio novi ili kupio rabljeni.
[Wed Jul 30 16:26:02 2003]
Some members of the organization pointed out that the company, through extensive market research, already knew a lot about consumer behavior in the new car market.
Neki članovi organizacije su istaknuli da je tvrtka, kroz opsežno istraživanje tržišta, već znala mnogo o ponašanju potrošača na tržištu novih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 16:26:02 2003]
They insisted that the dynamic model incorporate these data so the DSC could speak with one voice and avoid the need to reconcile conflicting models
Oni su inzistirali na tome da dinamički model uključi te podatke kako bi DSC mogao govoriti jednoglasno i izbjeći potrebu da uskladi konfliktne modele
[Wed Jul 30 16:36:27 2003]
To address the brand loyalty and consumer behavior issues the modeling team disaggregated the customer base into several categories:
Kako bi pristupio pitanjima odanosti marki i ponašanja potrošača, dizajnerski tim je rastavio evidenciju kupaca u nekoliko kategorija:
[Wed Jul 30 16:37:31 2003]
those who leased a new car, purchased a new car, or purchased used cars of various ages.
one koji su uzeli novi automobil na lizing, one koji su kupili novi automobil, ili one koji su kupili rabljene automobile raznih godišta.
[Wed Jul 30 16:39:26 2003]
Figure 2-2 shows a simplified representation of the resulting transition matrix.
Slika 2-2 prikazuje pojednostavljeni prikaz rezultirajuće tranzicijske matrice.
[Wed Jul 30 16:40:40 2003]
Each entry in the matrix is the probability that buyers coming from a particular category shown in a row will, when they next trade in, move to the categories shown in the columns.
Svaka ulazna vrijednost u matrici je vjerojatnost da će kupci iz određenih kategorija prikazanih u liniji, kada idući put budu trgovali, prijeći u kategorije prikazane u stupcima.
[Wed Jul 30 16:40:40 2003]
The actual matrix had twice as many categories as it included probabilities for each purchase option for both GM and non-GM vehicles
Stvarna matrica je imala dvaput više kategorija od uključenih vjerojatnosti za svaku opciju kupnje, za GM-ova i ostala vozila
[Wed Jul 30 16:46:22 2003]
The transition probabilities in the matrix were not constant but changed as the prices of new and used cars changed.
Vjerojatnosti prijelaza u matrici nisu bile konstantne, ali su se mijenjale kako su se mijenjale cijene novih i rabljenih automobila.
[Wed Jul 30 16:47:15 2003]
Lower payments on GM leases increase the proportion opting for a OM lease, while lower used car prices increase the share of people buying used cars at the expense of new purchases and leases.
Niže otplate u GM-ovom lizingu povećavaju udio koji se odlučuje za GM-ov lizing, dok niže cijene rabljenih automobila povećavaju udio ljudi koji kupuju rabljene automobile nauštrb novih kupnji i lizinga.
[Wed Jul 30 16:47:15 2003]
The response to such changes differed for each category of customer
Reakcija na te je bila različita u svakoj kategoriji kupaca
[Wed Jul 30 16:50:55 2003]
The matrix shows the probability p(i, j) that customers in each category shown in row i will, on trade-in, move to the category in column j.
Matrica pokazuje vjerojatnost p(i, j) da će klijenti iz svake kategorije prikazane u liniji, u razmjeni staro za novo, prijeći u kategoriju u stupcu j.
[Wed Jul 30 16:51:16 2003]
The transition probabilities in the full model are variable and depend on relative prices.
Vjerojatnosti prijelaza u punom modelu su promjenjive i ovise o relativnim cijenama.
[Wed Jul 30 16:51:16 2003]
The full matrix disaggregates GM and non-GM vehicles
Puna matrica rastavlja GM-ova i ostala vozila
[Wed Jul 30 16:52:26 2003]
New car Purchase
Kupnja novog automobila
[Wed Jul 30 16:52:51 2003]
New Car Lease
Lizing novih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 16:52:53 2003]
1-Yr-Old Used Car
Rabljeni automobil star 1 godinu
[Wed Jul 30 16:52:55 2003]
2-Yr-Old-Used Car
2-Godina-staro-korišten Automobil
[Wed Jul 30 16:52:57 2003]
3-Yr-Old-Used Car
3-Godina-staro-korišten Automobil
[Wed Jul 30 16:53:35 2003]
4-Yr-Old Used Car
Rabljeni automobil star 4 godine
[Wed Jul 30 16:53:37 2003]
New Car Purchase
Kupnja novog automobila
[Wed Jul 30 16:55:20 2003]
New Car Lease
Lizing novih automobila
[Wed Jul 30 16:56:12 2003]
Adapted from GM Decision Support Center diagram.
Prilagođeno iz dijagrama GM-ovog Centra za podršku pri odlučivanju.
[Wed Jul 30 16:56:12 2003]
Used with permission
Korišteno s dopuštenjem
[Wed Jul 30 17:03:46 2003]
The disaggregation of the model was not accomplished in one step but in several iterations.
Razrađenost modela nije postignuta u jednom koraku, nego u nekoliko iteracija.
[Wed Jul 30 17:04:30 2003]
At each stage modeling team members made sure they understood the structure and behavior of the model and presented it to Zarella and his team for comment and review.
U svakoj fazi, članovi dizajnerskog tima su se dobro uvjerili da shvaćaju strukturu i ponašanje modela i prezentirali su ga Zarelli i njegovom timu za komentare i reviziju.
[Wed Jul 30 17:05:05 2003]
Each iteration they incorporated the criticisms and suggestions they received.
Svaka iteracija je uključivala kritike i prijedloge koje su dobili.
[Wed Jul 30 17:05:05 2003]
Even with the limited disaggregation of the model the data challenges were formidable
Čak i s ograničenom razrađenosti modela, izazovi podataka su bili golemi
[Thu Jul 31 09:21:50 2003]
Given the 20-day deadline, the team had to use data already available in various parts of the organization.
Uz rok od dvadeset dana, tim je morao upotrijebiti već dostupne podatke u raznim dijelovima organizacije.
[Thu Jul 31 09:22:06 2003]
The market research data for
Podaci dobiveni istraživanjem tržišta
[Thu Jul 31 09:23:31 2003]
new cars were excellent.
Podaci dobiveni istraživanjem tržišta za nove automobile su bili izvrsni.
[Thu Jul 31 09:25:53 2003]
Data on leasing, a relatively new phenomenon, were sketchy.
Podaci o lizingu, relativno novom fenomenu, su bili nepotpuni.
[Thu Jul 31 09:28:21 2003]
And consistent with the prevailing mental model that downplayed the used car market, there was almost no research describing how people traded off new and late model used vehicles.
I u skladu s prevladavajućom mentalnom predodžbom koja je potcjenjivala važnost tržišta rabljenih automobila, gotovo da nije bilo istraživanja o tome kako ljudi razmjenjuju nove i rabljene automobile novijih modela.
[Thu Jul 31 09:28:21 2003]
They drew on the best data sources available and used judgment and qualitative data where numerical data were not available
Iskoristili su najbolje dostupne izvore podataka i koristili prosuđivanje i kvalitativne podatke gdje su numerički podaci bili nedostupni
[Thu Jul 31 09:32:24 2003]
At the end of the 20 days the team met again with Zarella and his team.
Nakon 20 dana tim ponovo susreo sa Zarellom i njegovim timom.
[Thu Jul 31 09:34:23 2003]
Instead of presenting the model and results, they configured the model as an interactive management flight simulator.
Umjesto da prezentiraju model i rezultate, oni su konfigurirali model kao simulator leta interaktivnog menadžmenta.
[Thu Jul 31 09:35:07 2003]
A "dashboard" contained dials and gauges reporting standard accounting information such as inventory levels, sales volumes, prices, market share, and profitability.
"Instrumentalna ploča" je sadržavala brojčanike i baždarske mjere koji su davali standardne računovodstvene podatke kao na primjer zalihe razine proizvodnje, količinu prodane robe, cijene, tržišni udio i isplativost.
[Thu Jul 31 09:36:13 2003]
Players set production targets, incentives, lease terms, and so on.
Igrači određuju ciljeve proizvodnje, poticaje, trajanje lizinga, i tako dalje.
[Thu Jul 31 09:36:13 2003]
By clicking a button on the screen players could get additional information including the structure and assumptions of the model
Klikom na tipku na ekranu igrači bi mogli dobiti dodatne informacije uključujući strukturu i pretpostavke modela
[Thu Jul 31 09:40:25 2003]
By playing the game instead of listening to a presentation, Zarella and his team explored the dynamics of leasing for themselves.
Igranjem igre umjesto slušanjem prezentacije, Zarella i njegov tim su sami za sebe istraživali dinamiku lizinga.
[Thu Jul 31 09:41:04 2003]
They could try various strategies, from aggressive subvention of leases to pulling out of the lease market altogether,
Mogli su iskušati razne strategije, od agresivne subvencije lizinga do potpunog odustajanja od tržišta lizinga,
[Thu Jul 31 09:43:48 2003]
and see the impact on sales and profits in the short run and the long run.
Mogli su iskušati razne strategije, od agresivne subvencije lizinga do potpunog odustajanja od tržišta lizinga, i vidjeti kratkoročne i dugoročne utjecaje na prodaju i zaradu.
[Thu Jul 31 09:45:17 2003]
They discovered that the full impact of leasing decisions took up to 5 years to play out.
Otkrili su da je potrebno pet godina da se iscrpi potpuni efekt odluka u vezi s lizingom.
[Thu Jul 31 09:45:17 2003]
While leasing did provide a lift to sales in the short run, it often caused problems when the off-lease cars returned to the market
Dok je lizing kratkoročno pružao poticaj prodaji, često je uzrokovao probleme kad bi se automobili nakon lizinga vratili na tržište
[Thu Jul 31 09:51:36 2003]
After 20 days the modeling process revealed the challenges leasing posed for the company and indicated preliminary policy recommendations.
Nakon 20 dana dizajnerski postupak je otkrio izazove koje je lizing predstavljao za tvrtku i ukazao na preliminarne preporuke za strategiju.
[Thu Jul 31 09:51:36 2003]
However, before any consensus for action could be developed, the process had to be broadened to include other key decision makers throughout North American Operations (NAO)
Međutim, prije no što se mogao razviti bilo kakav sporazum o djelovanju, postupak se morao proširiti da uključi i druge ključne donositelje odluka diljem Severnoameričkih Poslovanja (NAO)
[Thu Jul 31 09:57:02 2003]
The modeling team began to work with the Leasing Strategy Implementation Team, a task force including people from marketing, finance, and other functions.
Dizajnerski tim je počeo raditi s Timom za uvođenje strategije lizinga, radnom grupom koja je uključivala ljude iz marketinga, financija i drugih funkcija.
[Thu Jul 31 09:58:17 2003]
Their mandate was to boost market share and profitability.
Njihov zadatak je bio da potaknu tržišni udio i isplativost.
[Thu Jul 31 09:59:11 2003]
They didn't think a model was necessary, didn't trust the modeling approach, and opposed the initial recommendations.
Oni nisu mislili da je model neophodan, nisu vjerovali pristupu modeliranja, i protivili su se početnim preporukama.
[Thu Jul 31 10:00:29 2003]
Viewed through the lens of their mental model, this position was entirely rational.
Gledano kroz objektiv njihovog mentalnog modela, taj stav je bio potpuno racionalan.
[Thu Jul 31 10:00:29 2003]
The success of leasing and strength of the used car market provided ample evidence that competitive leasing was essential to GM's strategy
Uspjeh lizinga i snaga tržišta rabljenih automobila pružali su obilne dokaze da je kompetitivan lizing ključan za GM-ovu strategiju
[Thu Jul 31 10:05:06 2003]
Working with your critics is often the best way to improve your understanding of complex issues.
Rad s kritičarima je često najbolji način da se poboljša razumijevanje složenih problema.
[Thu Jul 31 10:06:27 2003]
Over the next few months the modeling team refined the model structure, improved-the data and calibration, and tested the model over a wide range of conditions.
Tijekom idućih nekoliko mjeseci dizajnerski tim je dotjerao strukturu modela, poboljšao podatke i kalibraciju, i testirao model u širokom rasponu uvjeta.
[Thu Jul 31 10:06:27 2003]
They met with the leasing team about once a month to present interim results and listen to critiques
Jednom mjesečno su se sastajali s timom za lizing da prezentiraju međurezultate i poslušaju kritike
