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[Thu Nov 27 09:44:28 2003]
Variables are related by causal links, shown by arrows.
Varijable su povezane uzročnim vezama, koje su prikazane strelicama.
[Thu Nov 27 09:48:44 2003]
In the example, the birth rate is determined by both the population and the fractional birth rate.
U primjeru, stopa nataliteta je određena i brojem stanovnika i djelomičnom stopom nataliteta.
[Thu Nov 27 09:51:13 2003]
Each causal link is assigned a polarity, either positive (+) or negative (-) to indicate how the dependent variable changes when the independent variable changes.
Svakoj uzročnoj vezi je dodijeljen polaritet, bilo pozitivan (+) ili negativan (-) da ukaže kako se zavisna varijabla mijenja kada se nezavisna varijabla mijenja.
[Thu Nov 27 09:53:32 2003]
The important loops are highlighted by a loop identifier which shows whether the loop is a positive (reinforcing) or negative (balancing) feedback.
Važne petlje su istaknute identifikatorom petlje koji pokazuje je li petlja pozitivna (učvršćujuća) ili negativna (balansirajuća) povratna veza.
[Thu Nov 27 09:55:41 2003]
Note that the loop identifier circulates in the same direction as the loop to which ith corresponds.
Uočit ćete da identifikator petlje kruži u istom smjeru kao i petlja na koju se odnosi.
[Thu Nov 27 09:56:43 2003]
In the example, the positive feedback relating births and population is clockwise and so is its loop identifier;
U primjeru, pozitivna povratna veza koja povezuje porode i broj stanovnika ide u smjeru kazaljke na satu, baš kao i njen identifikator;
[Thu Nov 27 09:56:43 2003]
the negative death rate loop is counterclockwise along with its identifier
negativna petlja stope smrtnosti ide u smjeru suprotnom od kazaljke na satu, zajedno sa svojim identifikatorom
[Thu Nov 27 10:00:43 2003]
Table 5-1 summarizes the definitions of link polarity
Tablica 5-1 ukratko prikazuje definicije polariteta veze
[Thu Nov 27 10:19:07 2003]
A positive link means that if the cause increases, the effect increases above what it would otherwise have been, and if the cause decreases, the effect decreases below what it would otherwise have been.
Pozitivna veza znači da ako se uzrok poveća, rezultat se povećava više nego što bi inače bio, a ako se uzrok smanji, rezultat se smanjuje ispod onoga što bi inače bio.
[Thu Nov 27 10:20:48 2003]
In the example in Figure 5-1 an increase in the fractional birth rate means the birth rate (in people per year) will increase above what it would have been, and a decrease in the fractional birth rate means the birth rate will fall below what it would have been.
U primjeru na Slici 5-1, porast djelomične stope nataliteta znači da će stopa nataliteta (u broju ljudi godišnje) narasti iznad onoga što bi inače bila, a smanjenje djelomične stope nataliteta znači da će stopa nataliteta pasti ispod onoga što bi inače bila.
[Thu Nov 27 10:21:24 2003]
That is, if average fertility rises, the birth rate, given the population, will rise;
Odnosno, ako se prosječni fertilitet poveća, stopa nataliteta, s obzirom na broj stanovnika, će porasti;
[Thu Nov 27 10:22:50 2003]
if fertility falls, the number of births will fall.
ako fertilitet padne, smanjit će se broj poroda.
[Thu Nov 27 10:23:38 2003]
When the cause is a rate of flow that accumulates into a stock then it is also true that the cause adds to the stock.
Ako je uzrok stopa toka koji se akumulira u stok, onda je također istinito da uzrok povećava stok.
[Thu Nov 27 10:23:38 2003]
In the example, births add to the population (see chapter 6 for more on stocks and flows)
U primjeru, broj poroda povećava broj stanovnika (vidi poglavlje 6 za više detalja o stokovima i tokovima)
[Thu Nov 27 10:32:00 2003]
A negative link means that if the cause increases, the effect decreases below what it would otherwise have been and if the cause decreases, the effect increases above what it would otherwise have been.
Negativna veza znači da ako se uzrok poveća, rezultat se smanjuje ispod onoga što bi inače bio, a ako se uzrok smanji, rezultat se povećava iznad onoga što bi inače bio.
[Thu Nov 27 10:32:47 2003]
In the example, an increase In the average lifetime of the population means the death rate (in people per year) will fall below what it would have been, and a decrease in the average lifetime means the death rate will rise above what it would have been.
U primjeru, porast prosječnog životnog vijeka populacije znači da će stopa nataliteta (u broju ljudi godišnje) pasti ispod onoga što bi inače bila, a smanjenje prosječnog trajanja života znači da će stopa nataliteta narasti iznad onoga što bi inače bila.
[Thu Nov 27 10:33:22 2003]
That is, if life expectancy increases, the number of deaths will fall;
Odnosno, ako se očekivana dužina života poveća, broj umrlih će se smanjiti;
[Thu Nov 27 10:33:22 2003]
and if life expectancy falls, the death rate will rise
a ako se očekivana dužina života smanji, stopa mortaliteta će narasti
[Thu Nov 27 10:37:58 2003]
Link polarities describe the structure of the system.
Polariteti veza opisuju strukturu sustava.
[Thu Nov 27 10:38:51 2003]
They do not describe the behavior of the variable.
Ne opisuju ponašanje varijable.
[Thu Nov 27 10:39:59 2003]
That is, they describe what would happen IF there were a change.
Odnosno, oni opisuju što bi se dogodio AKO bi došlo do promjene.
[Thu Nov 27 10:41:15 2003]
They do not describe what actually happens.
Ne opisuju što se zaista događa.
[Thu Nov 27 10:41:45 2003]
The fractional birth rate might increase;
Djelomična stopa nataliteta bi se mogla povećati;
[Thu Nov 27 10:43:06 2003]
Rather, it tells you what would happen if the variable were to change
Umjesto toga, on govori što bi se dogodilo kad bi se varijabla promijenila
[Thu Nov 27 10:47:53 2003]
Note the phrase above (or below) what it otherwise would have been in the definition of link polarity.
Obratite pažnju na izraz iznad (ili ispod) onoga što bi inače bilo u definiciji polariteta veze.
[Thu Nov 27 10:48:26 2003]
An increase in a cause variable does not necessarily mean the effect will actually increase.
Porast u varijabli uzroka ne mora nužno značiti da će se rezultat zaista povećati.
[Thu Nov 27 10:50:20 2003]
There are two reasons, First, a variable often has more than one input.
Prvo, varijabla često ima više od jedne ulazne informacije.
[Thu Nov 27 10:50:20 2003]
To determine what actually happens you need to know how all the inputs are changing
Kako biste odredili što se zapravo događa, morate znati kako se svi ulazni podaci mijenjaju
[Thu Nov 27 11:20:03 2003]
In the population example, the birth rate depends on both the fractional birth rate and the size of the population (that is, Birth Rate = Fractional Birth Rate * Population).
U primjeru broja stanovnika, stopa nataliteta ovisi i o djelomičnoj stopi nataliteta i o broju stanovnika (odnosno, stopa nataliteta = djelomična stopa nataliteta * broj stanovnika).
[Thu Nov 27 11:21:35 2003]
You cannot say whether an increase in the fractional birth rate will actually cause the birth rate to rise;
Ne možete utvrditi hoće li porast u djelomičnoj stopi nataliteta zaista prouzročiti povećanje stope nataliteta;
[Thu Nov 27 11:22:56 2003]
you also need to know whether the population is rising or falling.
morate također znati raste li broj stanovnika ili pada.
[Thu Nov 27 11:24:34 2003]
A large enough drop in the population may cause the birth rate to fall even if the fractional birth rate rises.
Dovoljno velik pad u broju stanovnika bi mogao uzrokovati da stopa nataliteta padne, čak i ako djelomična stopa nataliteta poraste.
[Thu Nov 27 11:27:05 2003]
When assessing the polarity of individual links, assume all other variables are constant (the famous assumption of ceteris paribus).
Kad ocjenjujete polaritet pojedinačnih veza, pretpostavite da su sve ostale varijable konstantne (slavna pretpostavka ceteris paribus).
[Thu Nov 27 11:27:05 2003]
When assessing the actual behavior of a system, all variables interact simultaneously (all else is not equal) and computer simulation is usually needed to trace out the behavior of the system and determine which loops are dominant
Kad se ocjenjuje stvarno ponašanje sustava, sve varijable međusobno djeluju simultano (sve ostalo nije jednako), a obično je potrebna kompjuterska simulacija da se prati ponašanje sustava i utvrdi koje su petlje dominantne
[Thu Nov 27 11:34:28 2003]
Second, and more importantly, causal loop diagrams do not distinguish between stocks and flows - the accumulations of resources in a system and the rates of change that alter those resources (see chapter 6).
Drugo, i još važnije, uzročni dijagrami petlje ne prave razliku između stokova i tokova - akumulacija resursa u sustavu i stopa promjene koje mijenjaju te resurse (vidi poglavlje 6).
[Thu Nov 27 11:36:45 2003]
In the population example, the population is a stock - it accumulates the birth rate less the death rate.
U primjeru stanovništva, broj stanovnika je stok - on akumulira stopu nataliteta minus stopu smrtnosti.
[Thu Nov 27 11:37:30 2003]
An increase in the birth rate will increase the population, but a decrease in the birth rate does not decrease the population.
Porast u stopi nataliteta će povećati broj stanovnika, ali smanjenje u stopi nataliteta ne smanjuje broj stanovnika.
[Thu Nov 27 11:40:19 2003]
Births can only increase the population, they can never reduce it.
Broj rođenih može samo povećati broj stanovnika, ne može ga nikada smanjiti.
[Thu Nov 27 11:43:57 2003]
The positive link between births and population means that the birth rate adds to the population.
Pozitivna veza između broja rođenih i broja stanovnika znači da stopa nataliteta povećava broj stanovnika.
[Thu Nov 27 11:43:57 2003]
Thus an increase in the birth rate increases the population above what it otherwise would have been and a decrease in the birth rate decreases population below what it otherwise would have been
Tako porast u stopi nataliteta povećava broj stanovnika iznad onoga što bi inače bio, a pad u stopi nataliteta smanjuje broj stanovnika ispod onoga što bi inače bio
[Thu Nov 27 11:48:44 2003]
Similarly, the negative polarity of the link from the death rate to population indicates that the death rate subtracts from the population.
Slično tome, negativan polaritet veze između stope smrtnosti i broja stanovnika pokazuje da stopa smrtnosti smanjuje broj stanovnika.
[Thu Nov 27 11:50:00 2003]
A drop in the death rate does not add to the population.
Pad u stopi smrtnosti ne povećava broj stanovnika.
[Thu Nov 27 11:50:54 2003]
A drop in deaths means fewer people die and more remain alive:
Pad u broju umrlih znači da manje ljudi umire, a više ih ostaje na životu:
[Thu Nov 27 11:51:56 2003]
the population is higher than it would otherwise have been.
broj stanovnika je veći nego što bi inače bio.
[Thu Nov 27 11:53:44 2003]
Note that you cannot tell whether the population will actually be increasing or decreasing:
Uočite da ne možete utvrditi hoće li broj stanovnika rasti ili padati:
[Thu Nov 27 11:54:58 2003]
Population will be falling even if the birth rate is rising if the death rate exceeds births.
broj stanovnika će se smanjiti čak i ako stopa nataliteta raste, ako stopa smrtnosti premašuje broj rođenih.
[Thu Nov 27 11:58:54 2003]
To know whether a stock is increasing or decreasing you must know its net rate of change (in this case, births less deaths).
Da biste znali povećava li se neki stok ili se smanjuje, morate znati njegovu neto stopu promjene (u ovom slučaju, broj rođenih minus broj umrlih).
[Thu Nov 27 11:59:40 2003]
It is always true, however, that if the birth rate rises, population will rise above what it would have been in the absence of the change in births, even if the population continues to fall.
Međutim, uvijek je istina da ako stopa nataliteta porast, broj stanovnika će porasti više nego što bi inače bio, ako nema promjene u broju rođenih, čak i ako broj stanovnika nastavi padati.
[Thu Nov 27 12:00:07 2003]
Population will be falling at a slower rate than it otherwise would.
Broj stanovnika će se smanjivati sporijim tempom nego što bi inače.
[Thu Nov 27 12:00:07 2003]
Chapters 6 and 7 discuss the structure and behavior of stocks and flows
Poglavlja 6 i 7 razmatraju strukturu i ponašanje stokova i tokova
[Thu Nov 27 12:02:16 2003]
Process Point:
Točka procesa:
[Thu Nov 27 12:02:16 2003]
A Note on Notation
Napomena o bilježenju
[Thu Nov 27 12:05:14 2003]
In some of the system dynamics literature, especially the systems thinking tradition (see, e.g.
U nekoj literaturi o dinamici sustava, posebno u tradiciji promišljanja sustava (vidi, npr.
[Thu Nov 27 12:06:39 2003]
, Senge et al.
, Senge i ostali,
[Thu Nov 27 12:08:43 2003]
1994 and Kim 1992), an alternate convention for causal diagrams has developed.
, Senge i ostali, 1994 i Kim 1992), razvijena je alternativna konvencija za uzročne dijagrame.
[Thu Nov 27 12:08:43 2003]
Instead of + or -the polarity of a causal link is denoted by s or o, respectively (denoting the same or opposite relationship between independent and dependent variables
Umjesto s + ili -, polaritet uzročne veze se označava sa s ili o, (obilježavajući isti ili suprotan odnos između nezavisnih i zavisnih varijabli
[Thu Nov 27 12:17:05 2003]
The link denoted with an s is read as 'X and Y move in the same direction' while the link denoted with an o is read as 'X and Y move in the opposite direction.'
Veza označena sa s se čita kao 'X i Y se kreću u istom smjeru', dok se veza označena s o čita kao 'X i Y se kreću u suprotnom smjeru.'
[Thu Nov 27 12:17:05 2003]
Thus Product Quality and Sales tend to move in the same direction while Product Price and Sales tend to move in the opposite direction
' Tako Kvaliteta proizvoda i Prodaja imaju tendeciju kretanja u istom smjeru, dok Cijena proizvoda i Prodaja imaju tendeciju kretanja u suprotnom smjeru
[Thu Nov 27 12:24:57 2003]
The s and o notation was motivated by a desire to make causal diagrams even easier to understand for people with little mathematical background.
Označavanje sa s i o je bilo motivirano željom da se uzročni dijagrami učine još lakšima za razumijevanje ljudima sa slabim poznavanjem matematike.
[Thu Nov 27 12:26:34 2003]
Which notation is better is hotly debated.
Žestoko se raspravlja o tome kakvo označavanje je bolje.
[Thu Nov 27 12:29:02 2003]
Richardson (1997) provides strong arguments against the use of s and o.
Richardson (1997) pruža snažne argumente protiv korištenja s i o.
[Thu Nov 27 12:30:53 2003]
He notes that the statement 'X and Y move in the same direction' is not in general correct, for the reasons stated above.
On konstatira da izjava 'X i Y se kreću u istom smjeru' općenito nije točna, zbog gore navedenih razloga.
[Thu Nov 27 12:32:27 2003]
The correct statement is, 'If X increases, Y increases above what it would have been."
Točna izjava je, 'Ako se X poveća, Y se povećava više od onoga što bi inače bio."
[Thu Nov 27 12:33:33 2003]
That is, a causal link is a contingent statement of the individual effect of a hypothesized change.
" Odnosno, uzročna veza je uvjetovana konstatacija pojedinačnog rezultata hipotetske promjene.
[Thu Nov 27 12:34:08 2003]
The variables X and Y may be positively linked and yet Y may fall even as X increases, as other variables also affect Y.
Varijable X i Y mogu biti pozitivno povezane, a Y se ipak može smanjiti čak i ako se X poveća, budući da i druge varijable također utječu na Y.
[Thu Nov 27 12:39:26 2003]
Births and population do not move in the same direction:
Broj rođenih i broj stanovnika se ne kreću u istom smjeru:
[Thu Nov 27 12:40:14 2003]
a decrease in births does not cause population to decrease because the birth rate is an inflow to the stock of population.
smanjenje broja rođenih ne uzrokuje smanjenje broja stanovnika jer je stopa nataliteta priljev u stok broja stanovnika.
[Thu Nov 27 12:42:28 2003]
The correct definition is given in Table 5-1:
Točna definicija je navedena u Tablici 5-1:
[Thu Nov 27 12:43:08 2003]
for positive link polarity, if X increases, Y will always be higher than it would have been;
za pozitivni polaritet veze, ako se X poveća, Y će uvijek biti veći nego što bi inače bio;
[Thu Nov 27 12:44:12 2003]
for negative polarity, if X increases, Y will always be lower than it would have been.
za negativan polaritet, ako se X poveća, Y će uvijek biti manji nego što bi bio.
[Thu Nov 27 12:47:01 2003]
In this book I will use the + and -signs to denote link polarity.
U ovaj knjizi ću koristiti znakove + i - za obilježavanje polariteta veze.
[Thu Nov 27 12:47:01 2003]
As a modeler you should know how to interpret the s and o notation when you see it, but you should use the + and -notation to denote link polarity
Kao modelator, trebali biste znati kako da protumačite označavanje sa s i o kada ga vidite, ali trebali biste koristiti znakove + i - za označavanje polariteta veze
[Thu Nov 27 14:10:23 2003]
Every link in your diagram must represent (what you believe to be) causal relationships between the variables.
Svaka poveznica u vašem dijagramu mora prezentirati (ono što vi vjerujete) uzročne odnose među varijablama.
[Thu Nov 27 14:10:45 2003]
You must not include correlations between variables.
Ne smijete uključiti korelacije među varijablama.
[Thu Nov 27 14:11:51 2003]
The Latin root of the word simulate, simulare, means 'to imitate'.
Latinski korijen riječi simulirati, simulare, znači 'imitirati'.
[Thu Nov 27 14:13:19 2003]
A system dynamics model must mimic the structure of the real system well enough that the model behaves the same way the real system would.
Model dinamike sustava model mora oponašati strukturu stvarnog sustava dovoljno dobro da se model ponaša na isti način kao stvarni sustav.
[Thu Nov 27 14:14:04 2003]
Behavior includes not only replicating historical experience but also responding to circumstances and policies that are entirely novel.
Ponašanje ne uključuje samo ponavljanje prošlog iskustva, nego i odgovaranje na okolnosti i strategije koje su potpuno nove.
[Thu Nov 27 14:14:17 2003]
Correlations among variables reflect the past behavior of a system.
Uzajamni odnos varijabli odražavaju prijašnje ponašanje sustava.
[Thu Nov 27 14:14:17 2003]
Correlations do not represent the structure of the system
Korelacije ne prikazuju strukturu sustava
[Thu Nov 27 14:50:05 2003]
If circumstances change, if previously dormant feedback loops become dominant, if new policies are tried, previously reliable correlations among variables may break down.
Ako se okolnosti promijene, ako prije neaktivne petlje povratne veze postanu dominantne, ako se isprobaju nove strategije, prethodno pouzdani odnosi među varijablama bi se mogli prekinuti.
[Thu Nov 27 14:50:39 2003]
Your models and causal diagrams must include only those relationships you believe capture the underlying causal structure of the system.
Vaši modeli i uzročni dijagrami moraju obuhvaćati samo one odnose za koje vjerujete da prikazuju temeljnu uzročnu strukturu sustava.
[Thu Nov 27 14:50:39 2003]
Correlations among variables will emerge from the behavior of the model when you simulate it
Korelacije među varijablama će proizaći iz ponašanja modela kada ga simulirate
[Thu Nov 27 14:56:13 2003]
Though sales of ice cream are positively correlated with the murder rate, you may not include a link from ice cream sales to murder in your models.
Iako je prodaja sladoleda pozitivno povezana sa stopom ubojstava, vi u vaše modele ne morate uključiti vezu između prodaje sladoleda i ubojstava.
[Thu Nov 27 14:57:40 2003]
Instead, as shown in Figure 5-2, both ice cream sales and murder rise in summer and fall in winter as the average temperature fluctuates.
Umjesto toga, kako je prikazano na slici 5-2, i prodaja sladoleda i broj ubojstava rastu po ljeti, a padaju po zimi, kako se mijenja prosječna temperatura.
[Thu Nov 27 14:59:24 2003]
Contusing correlation with causality can lead to terrible misjudgments and policy errors.
Brkanje korelacije s uzročnosti može dovesti do strašnih pogrešnih odluka i grešaka u politici.
[Thu Nov 27 14:59:24 2003]
The model on the left side of Figure 5-2 suggests that cutting ice cream consumption would slash the murder rate, save lives, and allow society to cut the budget for police and prisons
Model s lijeve strane Slike 5-2 sugerira da bi smanjenje potrošnje sladoleda smanjilo stopu ubojstava, spasilo živote i omogućilo društvu da sreže proračun za policiju i zatvore
[Thu Nov 27 15:03:50 2003]
Causal diagrams must include only (what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships
Uzročni dijagrami moraju uključivati samo istinske uzročne odnose (u koje vi vjerujete)
[Thu Nov 27 15:09:22 2003]
While few people are likely to attribute murders to the occasional double-dip cone, many correlations are more subtle, and it is often difficult to determine the underlying causal structure.
Dok je malo ljudi sklono ubojstva pripisati povremenom velikom kornetu, mnoge korelacije su suptilnije, i često je teško utvrditi temeljnu uzročnu strukturu.
[Thu Nov 27 15:10:31 2003]
A great deal of scientific research seeks the genuine causal needles in a huge haystack of correlations:
Mnogo znanstvenog istraživanja traži prave uzročne igle u golemom plastu korelacija:
[Thu Nov 27 15:16:15 2003]
Does vitamin C cure the common cold?
Liječi li vitamin C prehladu?
[Thu Nov 27 15:18:08 2003]
Can eating oat bran reduce cholesterol, and if it does, will your risk of a heart attack drop?
Može li jedenje zobenih mekinja smanjiti kolesterol, i ako može, hoće li se smanjiti rizik od srčanog udara?
[Thu Nov 27 15:24:58 2003]
Does economic growth lead to lower birth rates, or is the lower rate attributable to literacy, education for women, and increasing costs of child rearing?
Dovodi li gospodarski rast do niže stope nataliteta, ili se niža stopa može pripisati pismenosti, obrazovanju žena i rastućim troškovima podizanja djece?
[Thu Nov 27 15:31:19 2003]
Do companies with serious quality improvement programs earn superior returns for stockholders?
Donose li tvrtke s ozbiljnim programima poboljšanja kvalitete bolju zaradu dioničarima?
[Thu Nov 27 15:31:19 2003]
Scientists have learned from bitter experience that reliable answers to such questions are hard to come by and require dedication to the scientific method-controlled experiments, randomized, double-blind trials, large samples, long-term follow-up studies, replication, statistical inference, and so on
Znanstvenici su iz gorkog iskustva naučili da je teško dobiti pouzdane odgovore na takva pitanja, i da zahtijevaju posvećenost znanstvenim metodom-kontroliranim eksperimentima, nesistematskim kliničkim pokusima, velikim uzorcima, dugoročnim popratnim studijama, replikaciji, statističkom izvođenju, i tako dalje
[Thu Nov 27 15:35:35 2003]
In the social and human systems we often model, such experiments are difficult, rare, and often impossible.
U društvenim i ljudskim sustavima koje često modeliramo, takvi eksperimenti su teški, rijetki i često nemogući.
[Thu Nov 27 15:39:05 2003]
Modelers must take extra care to consider whether the relationships in their models are causal, no matter how strong the correlation, how high the R2, or how great the statistical significance of the coefficients in a regression may be.
Modelatori moraju biti osobito pažljivi i razmotriti jesu li odnosi u njihovim modelima uzročni, koliko god da je jaka korelacija, koliko visok R2, ili koliko god da je veliko statističko značenje koeficijenata u regresiji.
[Thu Nov 27 15:39:55 2003]
As the English economist Phelps-Brown (1972, p. 6) noted, 'Where, as so often, the fluctuations of different series respond in common to the pulse of the economy, it is fatally easy to get a good fit, and get it for quite a number of different equations.
6) uočio, 'Gdje, kao što je često, fluktuacije različitih serija zajednički odgovaraju pulsu ekonomije, vrlo je lako dobiti nešto što dobro odgovara, i dobiti to za prilično velik broj različitih jednadžbi.
[Thu Nov 27 15:39:55 2003]
..Running regressions between time series is only likely to deceive
Stvaranje regresija između vremenskih nizova bi samo moglo zavarati
[Thu Nov 27 15:44:27 2003]
Be sure to label the polarity of every link in your diagrams.
Nemojte zaboraviti označiti polaritet svake veze u vašim dijagramima.
[Thu Nov 27 15:46:24 2003]
Label the polarity of the important feedback loops in your diagrams, using the definitions in Table 5-1 to help you determine whether the links are positive or negative.
Označite polaritet važnih petlji povratne veze u vašim dijagramima, koristeći definicije u Tablici 5-1, koje će vam pomoći da utvrdite jesu li veze pozitivne ili negativne.
[Thu Nov 27 15:46:24 2003]
Positive feedback loops are also called reinforcing loops and are denoted by a + or R, while negative loops are sometimes called balancing loops and are denoted by a - or B (Figure 5-3)
Pozitivne petlje povratne veze se također nazivaju učvršćujuće petlje i obilježavaju se s + ili R, dok se negativne petlje ponekad nazivaju balansirajuće petlje i obilježavaju se sa - ili B (Slika 5-3)
[Thu Nov 27 15:51:31 2003]
Label link and loop polarities.
Označite polaritete veza i petlji.
[Thu Nov 27 15:52:09 2003]
Note that all links are labeled and loop polarity identifiers show which loops are positive and which are negative.
Uočite da su sve veze obilježene, a identifikatori petlji pokazuju koja petlja je pozitivna, a koja negativna.
[Thu Nov 27 15:52:09 2003]
Loop identifiers are clockwise for the clockwise loops (and vice versa)
Identifikatori petlje idu u smjeru kazaljke na satu za petlje u smjeru kazaljke na satu (i obrnuto)
[Thu Nov 27 16:09:11 2003]
The fast way to tell if a loop is positive or negative is to count the number of negative links in the loop.
Brz način za utvrđivanje je li petlja pozitivna ili negativna je prebrojavanje negativnih veza u petlji.
[Thu Nov 27 16:09:27 2003]
If the number of negative links is even, the loop is positive;
Ako je broj negativnih veza paran, petlja je pozitivna;
[Thu Nov 27 16:11:07 2003]
if the number is odd, the loop is negative.
ako je broj neparan, petlja je negativna.
[Thu Nov 27 16:11:26 2003]
The rule works because positive loops reinforce change while negative loops are self-correcting;
Ovo pravilo funkcionira zato što pozitivne petlje jačaju promjenu, dok su negativne petlje samo-ispravljajuće;
[Thu Nov 27 16:11:53 2003]
they oppose disturbances.
protive se poremećajima.
[Thu Nov 27 16:12:46 2003]
Imagine a small disturbance in one of the variables.
Zamislite mali poremećaj u jednoj od varijabli.
[Thu Nov 27 16:14:20 2003]
If the disturbance propagates around the loop to reinforce the original change, then the loop is positive.
Ako se poremećaj širi oko petlje da učvrsti izvornu promjenu, tada je petlja pozitivna.
[Thu Nov 27 16:22:20 2003]
To oppose the disturbance, the signal must experience a net sign reversal as it travels around the loop.
Kako bi se suprotstavio poremećaju, signal mora doživjeti neto promjenu predznaka, dok putuje oko petlje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:24:47 2003]
Net reversal can only occur if the number of negative links is odd.
Do neto promjene može doći samo ako je broj negativnih veza neparan.
[Thu Nov 27 16:25:20 2003]
A single negative link causes the signal to reverse:
Jedina negativna veza uzrokuje da se signal obrne:
[Thu Nov 27 16:26:55 2003]
an increase becomes a decrease.
povećanje postaje smanjenje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:27:21 2003]
But another negative link reverses the signal again, so the decrease becomes an increase, reinforcing the original disturbance.
Ali druga negativna veza ponovo mijenja signal, tako smanjenje postaje povećanje, pojačavajući izvorni poremećaj.
[Thu Nov 27 16:27:21 2003]
See 'Mathematics of Loop Polarity' below for a formal derivation of this rule
Vidi 'Matematiku polariteta petlje' niže za formalnu derivaciju ovog pravila
[Thu Nov 27 16:29:04 2003]
The fast method always works .
Brza metoda uvijek djeluje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:32:58 2003]
Why might it fail?
Zbog čega bi mogla podbaciti?
[Thu Nov 27 16:35:19 2003]
In a complex diagram it is all too easy to miscount the number of negative links in a loop.
U složenom dijagramu, vrlo je lako pogrešno prebrojati negativne veze u petlji.
[Thu Nov 27 16:36:08 2003]
And it is easy to mislabel the polarity of links when you first draw the diagram.
I lako je pogrešno obilježiti polaritet veza kad se prvi put crta dijagram.
[Thu Nov 27 16:40:13 2003]
Counting the number of negative signs is unlikely to reveal these errors.
Prebrojavanje negativnih predznaka vjerojatno neće otkriti ove greške.
[Thu Nov 27 16:42:13 2003]
The right method, carefully tracing the effect of a disturbance around the loop, will often reveal a wrongly labeled polarity and will help you and your audience to grasp the meaning and mechanism of the loop.
Ispravna metoda, koja pažljivo prati učinak poremećaja oko petlje, često će otkriti pogrešno obilježen polaritet i pomoći će vama i vašem auditoriju da shvatite značenje i mehanizam petlje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:42:13 2003]
Assigning loop polarity the right way rather than the fast way saves time in the long run
Određivanje polariteta na ispravan način, umjesto na brzi način, dugoročno štedi vrijeme
[Thu Nov 27 16:45:18 2003]
The Right Way:
Ispravan način:
[Thu Nov 27 16:45:18 2003]
Trace the Effect of a Change around the Loop
pratite učinak promjene oko petlje
[Thu Nov 27 16:48:52 2003]
The right way to determine the polarity of a loop is to trace the effect of a small change in one of the variables as it propagates around the loop.
Ispravan način za utvrđivanje polariteta petlje je pratiti rezultat male promjene u jednoj od varijabli dok se širi oko petlje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:49:24 2003]
If the feedback effect reinforces the original change, it is a positive loop;
Ako efekt povratne veze učvršćuje izvornu promjenu, to je pozitivna petlja;
[Thu Nov 27 16:49:39 2003]
if it opposes the original change, it is a negative loop.
ako se suprotstavlja izvornoj promjeni, petlja je negativna.
[Thu Nov 27 16:49:49 2003]
You can start with any variable in the loop;
Možete početi s bilo kojom varijablom u petlji;
[Thu Nov 27 16:51:02 2003]
the result must be the same.
rezultat mora biti isti.
[Thu Nov 27 16:52:38 2003]
In the market loops shown in Figure 5-3, assume sales from word of mouth increase.
Na petlji tržišta prikazanoj na Slici 5-3, pretpostavimo da se prodaja prema preporuci povećava.
[Thu Nov 27 16:55:10 2003]
Because the link from sales from word of mouth to the customer base is positive, the customer base increases.
Zbog toga što je veza između prodaje prema preporuci i baze kupaca pozitivna, baza kupaca se povećava.
[Thu Nov 27 16:55:58 2003]
Because the link from the customer base back to sales from word of mouth is positive, the signal propagates around the loop to increase sales from word of mouth still further.
Zbog toga što je veza koja ide od baze kupaca natrag prema prodaji po preporuci pozitivna, signal se širi oko petlje da još više poveća prodaju prema preporuci.
[Thu Nov 27 16:57:24 2003]
The feedback effect reinforces the original change, so the loop is positive.
Učinak povratne veze jača izvornu promjenu, pa je petlja pozitivna.
[Thu Nov 27 16:57:45 2003]
Turning to the other loop, assume a small increase in the customer loss rate.
Kod druge petlje, pretpostavite mali porast u stopi gubitka kupaca.
[Thu Nov 27 16:58:24 2003]
If customer losses increase, the customer base falls.
Ako se gubici kupaca povećaju, baza kupaca se smanjuje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:59:02 2003]
With a lower customer base, there are fewer customers who can drop out.
S manjom bazom kupaca, manje je kupaca koji mogu odustati.
[Thu Nov 27 16:59:02 2003]
The feedback effect opposes the original change, so the loop is negative
Učinak povratne veze se suprotstavlja izvornoj promjeni, pa je petlja negativna
[Thu Nov 27 17:03:47 2003]
This method works no matter how many variables are in a loop and no matter which variable you start with.
Ova metoda funkcionira bez obzira na to koliko je varijabli u petlji i bez obzira na to s kojom varijablom počinjete.
[Thu Nov 27 17:03:59 2003]
(Identify the loop polarities for the example starting with customer base instead of sales from word of mouth:
(Odredite polaritete petlje za primjer počevši s bazom kupaca umjesto s prodajom prema preporuci:
[Thu Nov 27 17:05:01 2003]
you should get the same result).
trebali biste dobiti isti rezultat).
[Thu Nov 27 17:05:01 2003]
You may also assume an initial decrease in a variable rather than an initial increase
Možete također pretpostaviti početno smanjenje u nekoj varijabli, umjesto početnog smanjenja
[Thu Nov 27 17:08:44 2003]
All Links Should Have Unambiguous Polarities
Sve veze bi trebale imati nedvosmislene polaritete
[Fri Nov 28 10:14:16 2003]
Sometimes people say a link can be either positive or negative, depending on other parameters or on where the system is operating.
Ponekad se kaže da veza može biti ili pozitivna ili negativna, ovisno o drugim parametrima ili o tome gdje sustav djeluje.
[Fri Nov 28 10:15:58 2003]
If demand is highly elastic, a higher price means less revenue because a 1% increase in price causes demand to fall more than 1%.
Ako je potražnja izrazito elastična, viša cijena znači manji prihod jer porast cijena od 1% uzrokuje da potražnja padne za više od 1%.
[Fri Nov 28 10:18:02 2003]
The link would have negative polarity.
Veza bi imala negativan polaritet.
[Fri Nov 28 10:18:05 2003]
If demand is inelastic, then a 1% increase in price causes demand to drop less than 1%, so revenues rise.
Ako je potražnja neelastična, tada porast cijena od 1% uzrokuje da potražnja padne za manje od 1%, pa prihodi rastu.
[Fri Nov 28 10:18:40 2003]
The link would be positive.
Veza bi bila pozitivna.
[Fri Nov 28 10:18:40 2003]
It appears no single polarity can be assigned
Čini se da se ne može pripisati samo jedan polaritet
[Fri Nov 28 10:26:29 2003]
When you have trouble assigning a clear and unambiguous polarity to a link it usually means there is more than one causal pathway connecting the two variables.
Ako imate problema u dodjeljivanju čistog i nedvosmislenog polariteta nekoj vezi, to obično znači da postoji više od jedne uzročne staze koja spaja dvije varijable.
[Fri Nov 28 10:27:15 2003]
You should make these different pathways explicit in your diagram.
U vašem dijagramu te različite staze moraju biti jasne.
[Fri Nov 28 10:29:12 2003]
In the example, price has at least two effects on revenue:
U primjeru, cijena ima barem dva učinka na prihod:
[Fri Nov 28 10:32:28 2003]
(1) it determines how much revenue is generated per unit sold and (2) it affects the number of units sold.
(1) utvrđuje koliko se prihoda stvara po prodanoj jedinici i (2) utječe na broj prodanih jedinica.
[Fri Nov 28 10:33:02 2003]
That is, Revenue = Price * Sales, and (Unit) Sales depend on Price (presumably the demand curve is downward sloping:
Odnosno, Prihod = Cijena * Prodaja, i Prodaja (Jedinica) ovise o Cijeni (krivulja potražnje vjerojatno ide prema dolje:
[Fri Nov 28 10:34:12 2003]
Higher prices reduce sales).
Više cijene smanjuju prodaju).
[Fri Nov 28 10:34:32 2003]
The proper diagram is shown on the right side of Figure 5-7.
Pravilan dijagram je prikazan na desnoj strani Slike 5-7.
[Fri Nov 28 10:34:32 2003]
There is now no ambiguity about the polarity of any of the links
Nema nejasnoća o polaritetu bilo koje veze
[Fri Nov 28 10:40:30 2003]
Apparently ambiguous polarities usually indicate the presence of multiple causal pathways that should be represented separately
Naizgled dvoznačni polariteti obično ukazuju na prisutnost višestrukih uzročnih staza koje bi trebale biti prikazane zasebno
[Fri Nov 28 10:50:46 2003]
The price elasticity of demand determines which causal pathway dominates.
Cjenovna elastičnost potražnje određuje koja uzročna putanja dominira.
[Fri Nov 28 10:52:45 2003]
If demand is quite insensitive to price (the elasticity of demand is less than one), then the lower path in Figure 5-7 is weak, price raises unit revenue more then it decreases sales, and the net effect of an increase in price is an increase in revenue.
Ako je potražnja prilično neosjetljiva na cijenu (elastičnost potražnje je manja od jedan), tada je niža putanja u Slici 5-7 slaba, cijena povećava prihod po jedinici više nego što smanjuje prodaju, i neto posljedica porasta cijene je porast prihoda.
[Fri Nov 28 10:57:06 2003]
Conversely, if customers are quite price sensitive (the elasticity of demand is greater than one), the lower path dominates.
Obratno, ako su klijenti su prilično osjetljivi na cijenu (elastičnost potražnje je veća od jedan), dominira niža putanja.
[Fri Nov 28 10:59:29 2003]
The increase in revenue per unit is more than offset by the decline in the number of units sold, so the net effect of a price rise is a drop in revenue.
Porast prihoda po jedinici je više nego kompenziran padom u broju prodanih jedinica, tako da je smanjenje prihoda neto učinak rasta cijena.
[Fri Nov 28 11:02:13 2003]
Separating the pathways also allows you to specify different delays, if any, in each.
Odvajanje putanja vam također omogućuje da specificirate različite odgode, ako ih ima, u svakoj od njih.
[Fri Nov 28 11:02:13 2003]
In the example above, there is likely to be a long delay between a change in price and a change in sales, while there is little or no delay in the effect of price on revenue
U gornjem primjeru, vjerojatno će biti veliko kašnjenje između promjene u cijeni i promjene u prodaji, dok kod utjecaja cijene na prihod neće biti kašnjenja ili će biti vrlo malo
[Fri Nov 28 11:08:49 2003]
Separating links with apparently ambiguous polarity into the underlying multiple pathways is a fruitful method to deepen your understanding of the causal structure, delays, and behavior of the system
Razdvajanje veza s očito dvosmislenim polaritetom u osnovne višestruke staze je plodonosna metoda za produbljivanje vašeg razumijevanja uzročne strukture, kašnjenja i ponašanja sustava
[Tue Nov 04 11:02:13 2003]
Much to our embarrassment, we find that we did indeed make reservations for you in a two-star hotel and not, as requested and agreed, in a four-star one.
Na našu veliku nezgodu, ustanovljeno je da smo doista rezervirali Vaš boravak u hotelu s dvije zvjezdice a ne, kako je traženo i dogovoreno, u hotelu s četiri zvjezdice.
[Tue Nov 04 11:08:38 2003]
Customer satisfaction and service are not, in our case, mere advertising slogans and we mean to prove that to you.
Zadovoljstvo klijenta i usluga nisu, u našem slučaju, puki reklamni slogani i to Vam namjeravamo i dokazati.
[Tue Nov 04 11:11:39 2003]
We hope that this quick, unbureaucratic solution is acceptable to you, and that we will be able to be of service to you again next year.
Nadamo se da će Vam ovo brzo, nebirokratsko rješenje biti prihvatljivo, i da ćemo biti u mogućnosti pružiti Vam naše usluge i iduće godine.
[Tue Nov 04 11:11:44 2003]
Yours sincerely,
Srdačan pozdrav,
[Tue Nov 04 11:11:50 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:11:56 2003]
#POSITION#
#POLOŽAJ#
[Tue Nov 04 11:11:56 2003]
#COMPANY#
#TVRTKA#
[Tue Nov 04 11:21:30 2003]
TITLE:
NASLOV:
[Tue Nov 04 11:21:32 2003]
Letters of apology
Pisma isprike
[Tue Nov 04 11:22:20 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 11:22:23 2003]
Reply to a letter of complaint
Odgovore na pismo pritužbe
[Tue Nov 04 11:22:41 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 11:26:53 2003]
Dear Mr #NAME#,
Poštovani gospodine #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 11:27:28 2003]
Please accept our apologies for the problems arising from your order and the fact that things have not gone as smoothly as the normally high standards of our company would lead you to expect.
Molimo Vas da prihvatite naše isprike za probleme koji su nastali Vašom narudžbom i za činjenicu da stvari nisu išle onako glatko kako biste inače očekivali od visokih mjerila naše tvrtke.
[Tue Nov 04 11:27:59 2003]
We do not simply aim to sell furniture:
Mi ne težimo samo prodaji namještaja:
[Tue Nov 04 11:30:15 2003]
a sale is only successful if you, the customer, are satisfied.
prodaja je uspješna samo ako ste Vi, naš klijent, zadovoljni.
[Tue Nov 04 11:34:13 2003]
Please do not hesitate to contact me on #NUMBER# if you have any further queries or requirements.
Molim Vas, ne oklijeva kontaktirati me na #BROJ# u slučaju da imate bilo kakva daljnja pitanja ili zahtjeve.
[Tue Nov 04 11:34:17 2003]
Yours sincerely,
Srdačan pozdrav,
[Tue Nov 04 11:34:37 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:34:42 2003]
Customer Services
Služba za usluge kupcu
[Tue Nov 04 11:34:42 2003]
#COMPANY#
#TVRTKA#
[Tue Nov 04 11:37:06 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 11:37:08 2003]
Letters of apology
Pisma isprike
[Tue Nov 04 11:37:50 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 11:37:53 2003]
Letter of apology from a superior to an employee
Pismo isprike zaposleniku od strane pretpostavljenoga
[Tue Nov 04 11:38:04 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 11:43:03 2003]
Dear Mr #NAME#,
Poštovani gospodine #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 11:44:40 2003]
At our field sales representatives' meeting yesterday certain matters were not handled in a manner deserving of our company.
Na našem jučerašnjem sastanku terenskih trgovačkih predstavnika određeni predmeti nisu bili sprovedeni na način kakav dolikuje našoj tvrtki.
[Tue Nov 04 11:47:02 2003]
The way I spoke to you in front of the other representatives was unworthy of your efforts and performance, and I would like to apologise.
Način na koji sam Vam se obratio pred ostalim predstavnicima bio je nedostojan Vaših napora i Vaše učinkovitosti, i želio bih Vam se ispričati.
[Tue Nov 04 11:47:47 2003]
I should have spoken to you about the mistake in the price calculation in private.
Trebao sam nasamo razgovarati sa vama o pogrešci prilikom određivanja cijene.
[Tue Nov 04 11:51:56 2003]
My criticism was in principle well-founded, but I chose a manner and a moment for it which were inappropriate.
Moja kritika je u načelu bila opravdana, no odabrao sam način i trenutak koji su bili neprikladni.
[Tue Nov 04 11:53:47 2003]
We were pressed for time yesterday, and in the rush I momentarily forgot how important constructive criticism is for the success of our company.
Jučer smo bili pod velikim vremenskim pritiskom, i u toj žurbi sam trenutno zaboravio na važnost konstruktivne kritike za uspjeh naše tvrtke.
[Tue Nov 04 11:56:30 2003]
In the light of this oversight I would like you to know that we value you very highly as one of our best field sales representatives, and that I am well aware of the high quality of your work.
U svjetlu ovoga propusta, želio bih Vam dati do znanja da Vas vrlo visoko cijenimo kao jednoga od naših najboljih terenskih trgovačkih predstavnika, i da sam vrlo dobro svjestan visoke kvalitete vašega rada.
[Tue Nov 04 11:56:37 2003]
Kind regards,
Srdačan pozdrav,
[Tue Nov 04 11:56:41 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:56:49 2003]
Managing Director
Generalni direktor
[Tue Nov 04 11:56:56 2003]
#COMPANY#
#TVRTKA#
[Tue Nov 04 11:57:01 2003]
cc:
cc:
[Tue Nov 04 11:57:06 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:57:12 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:57:17 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:57:22 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 11:57:22 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:03:18 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:03:39 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:03:58 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:04:12 2003]
Dear #NAME#,
Dragi/Draga #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 12:06:48 2003]
! It's really wonderful news.
To je zaista prekrasna vijest.
[Tue Nov 04 12:07:42 2003]
There'll be some big changes in your life now, but I know you're not the kind of person to forget all your old friends.
Sada će doći do velikih promjena u tvome životu, ali ja znam da ti nisi osoba koja će zaboraviti sve svoje stare prijatelje.
[Tue Nov 04 12:10:18 2003]
If you should have any time at all before that, though, and you feel like a chat or just a change of scenery, do give me a call.
Ako budeš imao/imala barem malo vremena prije toga, međutim, i ako poželiš pročavrljati ili tek promijeniti krajolik, svakako me nazovi.
[Tue Nov 04 12:10:23 2003]
Lots of love from
Pregršt ljubavi od
[Tue Nov 04 12:10:23 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:12:11 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:13:09 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:13:11 2003]
Letter to acquaintances, friends and family on the birth ofa a baby
Pismo znancima, prijateljima i obitelji povodom rođenja djeteta
[Tue Nov 04 12:13:37 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:14:14 2003]
Dear all,
Dragi naši,
[Tue Nov 04 12:14:40 2003]
We didn't want to know in advance, but now the secret's out - IT'S A BOY!
Nismo željeli znati unaprijed, ali sada je tajna otkrivena - DJEČAK JE!
[Tue Nov 04 12:15:06 2003]
... pm and weighed in at .
poslijepodne i težio je.
[Tue Nov 04 12:15:12 2003]
.. lbs .
.. kg.
[Tue Nov 04 12:17:15 2003]
.. oz.
.. g.
[Tue Nov 04 12:17:17 2003]
So now we'll be experiencing it all for real - what it's like having to get up in the middle of the night and change nappies, make bottles etc.
I tako ćemo sada sve to stvarno iskusiti - kako je to ustajati usred noći i promijeniti pelene, pripremati bočice s hranom, itd..
[Tue Nov 04 12:18:45 2003]
etc.
itd..
[Tue Nov 04 12:19:16 2003]
I expect we're going to be rather busy over the next few days trying to get our new life in order.
Pretpostavljam da ćemo biti prilično zauzeti tijekom sljedećih nekoliko dana pokušavajući srediti naš novi način života.
[Tue Nov 04 12:20:05 2003]
However, we'll be looking forward to your visit any time after Saturday.
Međutim, veselit ćemo se vašem posjetu u bilo kada nakon subote.
[Tue Nov 04 12:20:50 2003]
We also promise to talk about other things besides Pampers and baby food;
Također obećajemo da ćemo pričati i o drugim stvarima osim Pampersica i dječjih kašica;
[Tue Nov 04 12:21:07 2003]
so if you feel like coming round and meeting our little son, please do!
pa ako poželite svratiti do nas i upoznati našega sinčića, samo dođite!
[Tue Nov 04 12:21:15 2003]
Lots of love,
Puno vas vole,
[Tue Nov 04 12:21:15 2003]
#NAME# and #NAME#
#IME# i #IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:23:27 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:23:46 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:23:48 2003]
Congratulations of a company
Čestitka tvrtke
[Tue Nov 04 12:24:08 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:24:40 2003]
Dear Mr. and Mrs. #NAME#,
Dragi gospodine i gospođo #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 12:25:33 2003]
Hearty congratulations on the birth of your daughter.
Od svega srca Vam čestitamo na rođenju Vaše kćeri.
[Tue Nov 04 12:26:18 2003]
We wish your daughter health and happiness for the future.
Želimo Vašoj kćeri zdravlje i sreću u budućnosti.
[Tue Nov 04 12:26:39 2003]
.. for her first piggy bank.
KN za njezinu prvu kasicu.
[Tue Nov 04 12:26:41 2003]
Best wishes,
Najljepše želje,
[Tue Nov 04 12:26:47 2003]
Personnel Department
Odjel za kadrovske poslove
[Tue Nov 04 12:26:47 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:27:44 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:28:21 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:28:24 2003]
Letter to a friend from a man who has just become a father
Pismo prijatelju od čovjeka koji je upravo postao otac
[Tue Nov 04 12:28:42 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:30:04 2003]
Dear #NAME#,
Dragi/Draga #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 12:30:30 2003]
My life has completely changed since I've had two women in the house.
Moj život se potpuno promijenio otkako su mi u kuću stigle dvije žene.
[Tue Nov 04 12:32:31 2003]
I've even stopped riding my motorbike.
Čak sam prestao voziti svoj motocikl.
[Tue Nov 04 12:33:16 2003]
Maybe it's just too dangerous after all.
Možda je to ipak preopasno.
[Tue Nov 04 12:33:40 2003]
You know how I could never really understand why parents always talk about their children?
Znaš kako mi nikad nije bilo sasvim jasno zašto roditelji uvijek pričaju o svojoj djeci?
[Tue Nov 04 12:34:40 2003]
Well, now I'm just as bad.
E pa, sada sam i ja postao takav.
[Tue Nov 04 12:35:40 2003]
If you could see our little #NAME#, though, I'm sure you'd understand why.
Kada bi samo vidio/vidjela našu malenu #IME#, siguran sam da bi ti postalo jasno zašto.
[Tue Nov 04 12:36:15 2003]
Lots of love from all three of us,
Puno te volimo svo troje,
[Tue Nov 04 12:36:15 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:37:48 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:38:16 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:38:18 2003]
Letter to an acquaintance on the birth of a child
Pismo znancu povodom rođenja djeteta
[Tue Nov 04 12:38:31 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:39:07 2003]
Dear #NAME#,
Dragi/Draga #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 12:39:25 2003]
#NAME# arrived yesterday evening at .
#IME# se rodio/rodila sinoć u .
[Tue Nov 04 12:39:31 2003]
...pm and weighed .
poslijepodne i težio/težila je .
[Tue Nov 04 12:39:32 2003]
..lb .
.. kg.
[Tue Nov 04 12:40:30 2003]
...oz.
kg i ... g.
[Tue Nov 04 12:41:43 2003]
There were no complications and both mother and child are in excellent health.
Nije bilo nikakvih komplikacija i majka i dijete su odličnoga zdravlja.
[Tue Nov 04 12:42:24 2003]
Please forgive me if I seem a bit tired over the next few weeks.
Molim te, oprosti ako ću djelovati pomalo umorno tijekom sljedećih nekoliko tjedana.
[Tue Nov 04 12:43:49 2003]
Best wishes from the proud father,
Najljepše želje od ponosnog oca,
[Tue Nov 04 12:43:49 2003]
#NAME#
#IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:45:08 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:45:35 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:45:37 2003]
Congratulations on a christening
Čestitke povodom krštenja
[Tue Nov 04 12:45:51 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:46:37 2003]
Dear #NAME# and #NAME#,
Dragi #IME# i #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 12:48:19 2003]
Congratulations on the occasion of the baptism of your son #NAME#.
Primite naše čestitke prigodom krštenja vašega sina #IME#.
[Tue Nov 04 12:49:22 2003]
We hope the festivities went well, and that your son didn't scream all through the ceremony like our daughter did!
Nadamo se da je slavlje dobro prošlo, i da vaš sin nije vrištao tijekom čitave ceremonije, kao što je naša kćer!
[Tue Nov 04 12:49:23 2003]
We wish the new arrival all the very best for the future.
Želimo vašem malenom došljaku sve najbolje u budućnosti.
[Tue Nov 04 12:49:34 2003]
Best wishes,
Najljepše želje,
[Tue Nov 04 12:49:34 2003]
#NAME# & #NAME#
#IME# i #IME#
[Tue Nov 04 12:51:01 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:51:22 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 12:51:24 2003]
Accepting an invitation to a christening
Prihvaćanje poziva na krštenje
[Tue Nov 04 12:51:38 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 12:52:25 2003]
Dear #NAME# and #NAME#,
Dragi #IME# i #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 12:54:31 2003]
We'll be delighted to come to this very special event.
Bit ćemo presretni da dođemo na taj zaista osobit događaj.
[Tue Nov 04 12:55:45 2003]
We are also now the parents of a healthy baby girl whom we have called Julia.
Mi smo sada također roditelji zdrave djevojčice koju smo nazvali Julia.
[Tue Nov 04 12:56:56 2003]
Her christening is fortunately a week later, so there's nothing to stop us attending the christening of your twins.
Njezino krštenje je, nasreću, tjedan dana kasnije, tako da nas ništa ne može spriječiti da dođemo na krštenje vaših blizanki.
[Tue Nov 04 12:57:44 2003]
All we have to do now is find a babysitter with plenty of patience!
Sav što sada moramo učiniti je pronaći poprilično strpljivu dadilju!
[Tue Nov 04 12:58:12 2003]
We also hope that you will be able to come to Julia's christening on Sunday, #DATE# at .
Također se nadamo da ćete i vi moći doći na krštenje naše Julie u nedjelju, #DATUM# u.
[Tue Nov 04 12:59:01 2003]
... am at the Church of the Holy Cross in #PLACE#.
prijepodne u crkvi Svetoga Križa u #MJESTO#.
[Tue Nov 04 12:59:08 2003]
,#NAME# and #NAME#
#IME# i #IME#
[Tue Nov 04 13:01:01 2003]
TITLE:
TITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 13:01:10 2003]
SUBTITLE:
SUBTITLE:
[Tue Nov 04 13:01:12 2003]
Invitation to a christening
Poziv na krštenje
[Tue Nov 04 13:01:25 2003]
BODY:
BODY:
[Tue Nov 04 13:56:58 2003]
Dear #NAME#,
Dragi/Draga #IME#,
[Tue Nov 04 13:57:47 2003]
The church ceremony will take place on Sunday, #DATE#, at .
Crkveni obred će se odigrati u nedjelju, #DATUM#, u
[Tue Nov 04 14:00:19 2003]
...pm in the Church of St. Joseph in #PLACE#.
poslijepodne u crkvi od Sv. Josipa u #MJESTO#.ž
[Tue Nov 04 14:01:08 2003]
Afterwards there will be a big buffet in #NAME#, #ADDRESS#, to which all our guests are invited.
Nakon toga slijedi svečana zakuska u #NAZIV#, #ADRESA#, na koju su pozvani svi naši gosti.
[Tue Nov 04 14:05:15 2003]
It would be really marvellous if you could find time to make one of your famous apple flans to bring along for us!
Bilo bi zaista izvrsno kada bi uspjela pronaći vremena da pripremiš svoju čuvenu pitu s jabukama i da je doneseš!
