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[Wed Nov 26 15:45:00 2003]
The engineers then argued that corner cutting is self-defeating because it increases the error rate, which leads to rework and lower productivity in the long run:
Inženjeri su tada tvrdili da je preskakanje suvišnih poslova samoporažavajuće, jer ono povećava stupanj pogreške, a to dovodi do ponavljanja posla i do niže dugoročne učinkovitosti:
[Wed Nov 26 15:45:00 2003]
'Haste makes waste,' they said, and schedule pressure rises further, leading to still more pressure to cut corners (loop R2)
'Žurba dovodi do pogrešaka,' govorili su, a pritisak termina se još više povećava, dovodeći do većeg pritiska pri preskakanju nepotrebnih zadataka (petlja R2)
[Wed Nov 26 15:46:21 2003]
The full model included many more loops (section 5.1 provides a closely related example;
Potpuni model uključuje mnogo više petlji (odlomak 5.1 pruža blizak primjer;
[Wed Nov 26 15:48:46 2003]
see also section 2.3).
vidjeti također odlomak 2.3).
[Wed Nov 26 15:59:34 2003]
The names given to the loops by one group (engineers) communicated their attitudes and the rationale for their behavior to the managers in a clear and compelling way.
Nazivi koje je jedna grupa (inženjera) dodijelila petljama iznijeli su njihove stavove i opravdanja njihovoga ponašanja prema menadžerima na jasan i zanimljiv način.
[Wed Nov 26 16:06:19 2003]
Participants soon began to talk about the Burnout Loop kicking in and the nonlinear relationships between schedule pressure, overtime, fatigue, and errors.
Sudionici su ubrzo počeli govoriti o nastupajućoj petlji iscrpljenosti i nelinearnim odnosima između pritiska termina, prekovremenog rada, premorenosti, i grešaka.
[Wed Nov 26 16:08:56 2003]
The names for the loops made it easy to refer to complex chunks of feedback structure.
Nazivi petlji su olakšali upućivanje na složene blokove strukture povratnih informacija.
[Wed Nov 26 16:10:43 2003]
Indicate Important Delays in Causal Links
Ukazivanje na važna odlaganja u uzročnim vezama
[Wed Nov 26 16:13:16 2003]
Delays are critical in creating dynamics.
Odlaganja su presudna u stvaranju dinamike.
[Wed Nov 26 16:14:34 2003]
Delays give systems inertia, can create oscillations, and are often responsible for trade-offs between the short- and long-run effects of policies.
Odlaganja sustavima daju inerciju, mogu stvoriti oscilacije, i često su odgovorna za razmjenu između kratkoročnih i dugoročnih učinaka strategije.
[Wed Nov 26 16:14:44 2003]
Your causal diagrams should include delays that are important to the dynamic hypothesis or significant relative to your time horizon.
Vaši uzročni dijagrami trebali bi obuhvatiti odlaganja koja su važna za dinamičnu pretpostavku, ili su značajna u odnosu na vaš vremenski horizont.
[Wed Nov 26 16:15:26 2003]
As shown in chapter 11, delays always involve stock and flow structures.
Kao što je prikazano u poglavlju 11, odlaganja uvijek uključuju strukture stoka i toka.
[Wed Nov 26 16:16:28 2003]
Sometimes it is important to show these structures explicitly in your diagrams.
Ponekad je važno jasno prikazati ove strukture u vašim dijagramima.
[Wed Nov 26 16:17:04 2003]
Figure 5-10 shows how time delays are represented in causal diagrams
Slika 5-10 pokazuje kako su vremenska odlaganja predstavljana u uzročnim dijagramima
[Wed Nov 26 16:20:42 2003]
When the price of a good rises, supply will tend to increase, but often only after significant delays while new capacity is ordered and built and while new firms enter the market.
Kada poraste cijena robe, opskrba će se povećati, ali često tek nakon značajnih odlaganja dok se ne naruči nova količina je naređena, i dok nove tvrtke ne stupe na tržište.
[Wed Nov 26 16:20:42 2003]
See also the time delays in the Burnout and Haste Makes Waste loops in Figure 5-9
Pogledajte također vremenska odlaganja u petlji iscrpljenosti i petlji grešaka učinjenih u žurbi na Slici 5-9
[Wed Nov 26 16:22:36 2003]
The response of gasoline sales to price involves long delays.
Odgovor prodaje benzina na cijenu uključuje dugo odlaganje.
[Wed Nov 26 16:24:46 2003]
In the short run, gasoline demand is quite inelastic:
Kratkoročno gledano, potražnja za benzinom je prilično neelastična:
[Wed Nov 26 16:25:49 2003]
if prices rise, people can cut down on discretionary trips somewhat, but most people still have to drive to work, school, and the supermarket.
ako cijena poraste, ljudi mogu smanjiti broj nekih manje bitnih putovanja, ali većina ljudi se ipak mora voziti automobilom na posao, u školu, i u kupovinu.
[Wed Nov 26 16:26:18 2003]
As people realize that prices are likely to stay high they may organize carpools or switch to public transportation, if it is already available.
Kada ljudi shvate da će cijene vjerojatno ostati visoke, mogu urediti organizirani prijevoz ili prijeći na javni prijevoz, ako im je već dostupan.
[Wed Nov 26 16:28:34 2003]
Over time high prices induce other responses.
Tijekom vremena, visoke cjene će prouzročiti druge reakcije.
[Wed Nov 26 16:29:33 2003]
First, consumers (and the auto companies) wait to see if gas prices are going to stay high enough and long enough to justify buying or designing more efficient cars (a perceptual and decision-making delay of perhaps a year or more).
Prvo, potrošači (i automobilske tvrtke) čekaju da vide hoće li cijene benzina ostati visoke i dovoljno dugo da bi opravdale kupnju ili kreiranje djelotvornijih automobila (perceptivno i odlučujuće odlaganje od eventualno godinu dana, ili dulje).
[Wed Nov 26 16:33:25 2003]
Even after more efficient cars become available, the vast majority of cars on the road will be inefficient, older models which are only replaced as they wear out and are discarded, a delay of about 10 years.
Čak i nakon što učinkovitiji automobili postanu dostupni, velika većina automobila na cesti biti će neučinkovita, stariji modeli koji su zamijenjeni nakon što se otrcaju bivaju odbačeni, što je odlaganje od otprilike 10 godina.
[Wed Nov 26 16:34:18 2003]
If prices stay high, eventually the density of settlement patterns will increase as people abandon the suburbs and move closer to their jobs.
Ako cijene ostanu visoke, s vremenom će porasti gustoća naseljenosti jer će ljudi napustiti predgrađa i preseliti se bliže svojim radnim mjestima.
[Wed Nov 26 16:36:05 2003]
Altogether, the total delay in the link between price and demand for gasoline is significantly more than a decade.
Sve zajedno, ukupno odlaganje u vezi između cijene i potražnje za benzinom iznosi znatno više od deset godina.
[Wed Nov 26 16:37:04 2003]
As the stock of cars on the road is gradually replaced with more efficient cars, and as (perhaps) new mass transit routes are designed and built, the demand for gasoline would fall substantially - long-run demand is quite elastic.
Kako se stok automobila na cesti postupno zamjenjuje učinkovitijim automobilima, i kako (možda) novi masovni pravci prijevoza bivaju oblikovani i izgrađeni, potražnja za benzinom bi značajno opala - dugoročna potražnja je prilično rastezljiva.
[Wed Nov 26 16:41:22 2003]
Explicitly portraying the many delays between a change in price and the resulting change in demand makes it easier to see the worse-before-better behavior of expenditures on gasoline caused by a price increase.
Jasno prikazivanje mnogih odlaganja između promjene u cijeni i rezultirajuće promjena u potražnji olakšava sagledavanje lošijeg ponašanja prije boljega što se tiče troškova benzina uzrokovanih poskupljenjem cijena.
[Wed Nov 26 16:41:22 2003]
The bottom of Figure 5-11 shows the response of gasoline demand and expenditures to a hypothetical
Donji dio Slike 5-11 prikazuje odgovor potražnje za benzinom i troškova na hipotetički
[Wed Nov 26 16:42:31 2003]
Representing delays in causal diagrams
Prikaz odlaganja u uzročnim dijagramima
[Wed Nov 26 16:45:52 2003]
unanticipated step increase in the price of gasoline.
neočekivanoj stopi porasta cijene benzina.
[Wed Nov 26 16:46:03 2003]
In the short run gasoline demand is rather inflexible, so the first response to an increase in the price of gas is an increase in gasoline expenditures.
Kratkoročno gledano, potražnj za benzinom je prilično nefleksibilna, tako da je prva reakcija na porast cijene benzina je porast troškova benzina.
[Wed Nov 26 16:46:03 2003]
As the high price persists, efficiency
Kada visoka cijena ustraje, učinkovitost
[Wed Nov 26 16:47:02 2003]
Different time delays in the response of gasoline demand and expenditures to price
Različita vremenska odlaganja kao odgovor na potražnju za benzinom i troškove cijene
[Wed Nov 26 16:49:06 2003]
Top:
Vrh:
[Wed Nov 26 16:49:06 2003]
The short run response to higher prices is weak, while the long run response is substantial as the stock of cars is gradually replaced with more efficient models, and as lifestyles change
Kratkoročni odgovor na visoke cijene je slab, dok je dugoročni odgovor značajan zato što se stok automobila postupno zamjenjuje učinkovitijim modelima, s promjenom životnih stilova
[Wed Nov 26 16:49:52 2003]
Bottom:
Dno:
[Wed Nov 26 16:51:44 2003]
Consumption slowly declines due to the long delays in adjusting the efficiency of automobiles and in changing settlement patterns and mass transit routes.
Potrošnja polako opada zbog dugih odlaganja u prilagođavanju učinkovitosti automobila i promjene obrasca naseljenosti i masovnih prijevoznih pravaca.
[Wed Nov 26 16:52:22 2003]
Expenditures therefore immediately rise and only later fall below the initial level:
Izdaci stoga izravno rastu, i tek kasnije će pasti ispod početne razine:
[Wed Nov 26 16:54:00 2003]
a worse-before-better trade-off for consumers.
lošija prije bolje razmjene za potrošače.
[Wed Nov 26 16:54:47 2003]
Of course, as demand falls, there would be downward pressure on price, possibly lowering expenditures still more, but also discouraging further efficiency improvements.
Naravno, kako potražnja opada, dolazi do silaznog pritiska na cijenu, koji može dodatno smanjiti izdatke, ali koji isto tako obeshrabruje daljnja učinkovita poboljšanja.
[Wed Nov 26 16:54:47 2003]
The feedback to price is deliberately ignored in the diagram.
Povratna veza s cijenom namjerno je zanemarena u dijagramu.
[Wed Nov 26 16:55:22 2003]
Price
Cijena
[Wed Nov 26 16:55:32 2003]
Delay
Odlaganje
[Wed Nov 26 16:55:40 2003]
Expected Short-Term Price
Očekivana kratkoročna cijena
[Wed Nov 26 16:55:54 2003]
Expected Long -Term Price
Očekivana dugoročna cijena
[Wed Nov 26 16:56:53 2003]
Discretionary Tips
Diskrecijski savjeti
[Wed Nov 26 17:13:15 2003]
Car Pooling and Use of Existing Mass Transit
Organizirani prijevoz i korištenje postojećeg masovnog prijevoza
[Wed Nov 26 17:13:25 2003]
Density of Settlement Patterns, Development of New Mass Transit Routes
Obrasci gustoće naseljenosti, razvoj novih pravaca masovnog prijevoza
[Wed Nov 26 17:13:38 2003]
Gasoline Expenditures
Troškovi benzina
[Wed Nov 26 17:14:25 2003]
Demand for Gasoline
Potražnja za benzinom
[Wed Nov 26 17:14:37 2003]
Vehicle Miles Per Year
Broj prijeđenih milja u vozilu godišnje
[Wed Nov 26 17:14:49 2003]
Efficiency of Cars on Market
Učinkovitost automobila na tržištu
[Wed Nov 26 17:14:49 2003]
Efficiency of Cars on Road
Učinkovitost automobila na cesti
[Wed Nov 26 17:15:30 2003]
Gasoline Price
Cijena benzina
[Wed Nov 26 17:15:41 2003]
Gasoline Consumption
Potrošnja benzina
[Wed Nov 26 17:21:20 2003]
Expenditures on Gasoline
Troškovi benzina
[Wed Nov 26 17:21:20 2003]
Time
Vrijeme
[Wed Nov 26 17:31:50 2003]
improvements gradually cut consumption of gasoline per vehicle mile, and eventually, settlement patterns and mass transit availability will adjust to reduce the number of vehicle miles driven per year.
postupno smanjuje potrošnju benzina po prijeđenom putu, i s vremenom, obrasci naseljenosti i raspoloživost masovnog prijevoza prilagodit će se tako da se smanji broj godišnje prijeđenih milja.
[Wed Nov 26 17:32:28 2003]
In the long run, demand adjustments more than offset the price increase and expenditures fall.
Dugoročno, prilagodbe potražnje više nego nadoknađuju poskupljenje i troškovi opadaju.
[Wed Nov 26 17:36:23 2003]
The time delays and the trade-off they create help explain why it has proven so difficult, in the United States at least, to increase gasoline taxes.
Vremenska odlaganja i razmjena koja time nastaje pomaže objasniti zašto se pokazalo tako teškim, barem u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, povećati poreze na benzin.
[Wed Nov 26 17:37:14 2003]
Although the long-run benefits outweigh the short-run costs, even in net present value terms, they only begin to accrue after many years.
Iako dugoročna korist preteže nad kratkoročnim cijenama, čak i u terminima čiste sadašnje vrijednosti, ta korist se počinje gomilati tek nakon niza godina.
[Wed Nov 26 17:38:38 2003]
Government officials focused on the next reelection campaign judge the short-run costs to be politically unacceptable.
Vladini službenici usredotočeni na sljedeći reizbornu kampanju smatraju da su kratkoročne cijene politički neprihvatljive.
[Wed Nov 26 17:38:38 2003]
In turn, they make this judgment because the public is unwilling to sacrifice a little today for larger benefits tomorrow
Naprotiv, oni su stvorili takvo mišljenje jer javnost nije spremna žrtvovati nešto malo danas da bi imali veće koristi sutra
[Thu Nov 27 12:58:21 2003]
The variable names in causal diagrams and models should be nouns or noun phrases.
Nazivi varijabli u uzročnim dijagramima i modelima trebali bi biti imenice ili imeničke fraze.
[Thu Nov 27 13:00:19 2003]
The actions (verbs) are captured by the causal links connecting the variables.
Aktivnosti (glagoli) obuhvaćeni su uzročnim vezama koje povezuju varijable.
[Thu Nov 27 13:01:04 2003]
A causal diagram captures the structure of the system, not its behavior - not what has actually happened but what would happen if other variables changed in various ways.
Uzročni dijagram obuhvaća strukturu sustava, a ne njegovo ponašanje - ne ono što se zapravo dogodilo, već ono što bi se dogodio ukoliko bi se druge varijable promijenile na različite načine.
[Thu Nov 27 13:01:04 2003]
Figure 5-12 shows examples of good and bad practice
Slika 5-12 prikazuje primjere dobrog i lošeg postupanja
[Thu Nov 27 13:03:42 2003]
The correct diagram states:
Ispravan dijagram govori:
[Thu Nov 27 13:05:50 2003]
If costs rise, then price rises (above what it would have been), but if costs fall, then price will fall (below what it would have been).
Ako troškovi porastu, porasti će i cijena (iznad očekivane razine), ali ako troškovi padnu, tada će pasti i cijena (ispod očekivane razine).
[Thu Nov 27 13:09:19 2003]
Adding the verb 'rises' to the diagram presumes costs will only rise, biasing the discussion towards one pattern of behavior (inflation).
Dodavanje glagola 'porasti' ovome dijagramu stvoriti će pretpostavku da će troškovi samo rasti, i tako usmjeriti raspravu prema jednome obrascu ponašanja (prema inflaciji).
[Thu Nov 27 13:09:19 2003]
It is confusing to talk of a decrease in costs rising or a fall in price increases - are prices rising, rising at a falling rate, or falling
Zbunjujuće je govoriti o padu rastućih troškova ili padu povećanja cijene - rastu li cijene , rastu li uz silaznu stopu, ili opadaju
[Thu Nov 27 13:16:18 2003]
Choose names for which the meaning of an increase or decrease is clear, variables that can be larger or smaller.
Odaberite nazive koji daju jasno značenje povećanja ili smanjenja, varijable koje mogu biti veće ili manje.
[Thu Nov 27 13:17:52 2003]
On the left side of Figure 5-13 neither variable has a clear direction:
Na lijevoj strani Slike 5-13 nijedna varijabla nema jasan smjer:
[Thu Nov 27 13:18:07 2003]
If feedback from the boss increases, does that mean you get more comments?
Ako povratna veza od šefa poraste, znači li to da ćete dobiti više komentara?
[Thu Nov 27 13:18:07 2003]
Are these
Jesu li ti
[Thu Nov 27 13:29:41 2003]
Choose variables whose normal sense of direction is positive
Odaberite varijable čije je uobičajeno značenje smjera pozitivno
[Thu Nov 27 13:44:49 2003]
And what does it mean for mental attitude to increase?
I što oni znače za psihičko stajalište prema povećanju?
[Thu Nov 27 13:45:03 2003]
The meaning of the right side is clear:
Značenje desne strane je jasno:
[Thu Nov 27 13:50:14 2003]
More praise from the boss boosts morale;
Više pohvala od šefa potiče samopouzdanje;
[Thu Nov 27 13:54:15 2003]
Variable names should be chosen so their normal sense of direction is positive.
Nazivi varijabli trebaju biti odabrani tako da je njihovo značenje smjera pozitivno.
[Thu Nov 27 13:54:19 2003]
Avoid the use of variable names containing prefixes indicating negation (non, un, etc.
Izbjegavajte uporabu naziva s prefiksima koji ukazuju na negaciju (ne-, protu-, itd.
[Thu Nov 27 13:54:19 2003]
; Figure 5-14)
Slika 5-14)
[Thu Nov 27 13:57:28 2003]
Standard accounting practice is Profit = Revenue - Costs, so the better variable name is Profit, which falls when costs rise and rises when costs fall.
Uobičajeni računovodstveni postupak je Profitira = Dohodak - Troškovi, pa je tako bolji naziv za varijablu Profit, koji pada kada cijene porastu, a raste kada cijene opadaju.
[Thu Nov 27 13:58:46 2003]
Likewise, criticism may make you unhappy, but it is confusing to speak of rising unhappiness;
Također, kritika vas može oneraspoložiti, ali zbunjujuće je govoriti o rastućem nezadovoljstvu;
[Thu Nov 27 14:00:52 2003]
a better choice is the positive happiness, which may fall when you are criticized and rise when criticism drops.
bolji izbor je pozitivno zadovoljstvo, koji može pasti kada vas šef iskritizira, i porasti kada se kritika smanji.
[Thu Nov 27 14:03:00 2003]
To maximize the clarity and impact of your causal diagrams, you should follow some basic principles of graphic design
Da biste maksimalno povećali jasnoću i učinak vaših uzročnih dijagrama, trebate slijediti neka osnovna načela grafičkog dizajna
[Thu Nov 27 14:03:46 2003]
Use curved lines for information feedbacks.
Koristite zakrivljene linije za informacijske povratne veze.
[Thu Nov 27 14:03:46 2003]
Curved lines help the reader visualize the feedback loops
Zakrivljene linije pomažu čitatelju da vizualizira petlju povratne veze
[Thu Nov 27 14:04:51 2003]
Make important loops follow circular or oval paths
Neka važne petlje slijede kružne ili ovalne putanje
[Thu Nov 27 14:07:41 2003]
Organize your diagrams to minimize crossed lines
Organizirajte vaše dijagrame tako da ukrštene linije svedete na minimum
[Thu Nov 27 14:10:28 2003]
Symbols without meaning are 'chart junk' and serve only to clutter and distract.
Simboli bez značenja su 'tabelarni otpad' koji samo opterećuju dijagram i odvraćaju pažnju.
[Thu Nov 27 14:11:08 2003]
An exception:
Iznimka:
[Thu Nov 27 14:13:41 2003]
In these cases the rectangles and valves around the variables tell the reader which are stocks and which are flows - they convey important information (see chapter 6).
U takvim slučajevima, pravokutnici i ventili oko varijabli govore čitatelju što su stokovi, a što su tokovi - oni priopćavaju važne podatke (vidjeti poglavlje 6).
[Thu Nov 27 14:17:32 2003]
Iterate.
Ponovite.
[Thu Nov 27 14:19:19 2003]
Make intermediate links explicit to clarify a causal relationship
Istaknite posredne veze da biste razjasnili uzročan odnos
[Thu Nov 27 14:22:48 2003]
you might make the intermediate concepts explicit as follows
mogli biste istanuti posredne pojmove na sljedeći način
[Thu Nov 27 14:26:04 2003]
Choose the Right Level of Aggregation
Odaberite ispravnu razinu agregacije
[Thu Nov 27 14:28:09 2003]
Causal loop diagrams are designed to communicate the central feedback structure of your dynamic hypothesis.
Dijagrami uzročnih petlji stvoreni su zato da bi priopćili središnju strukturu povratne veze vaše dinamične pretpostavke.
[Thu Nov 27 14:30:26 2003]
Having too much detail makes it hard to see the overall feedback loop structure and how the different loops interact.
Previše detalja otežava sagledanje cjelokupne strukture petlje povratne veze i načina na koji različite petlje komuniciraju.
[Thu Nov 27 14:30:26 2003]
Having too little detail makes it hard for your audience to grasp the logic and evaluate the plausibility and realism of your model
S druge strane, premalo detalja otežava vašoj publici da shvati logiku i procijeni uvjerljivost i realizam vašega modela
[Thu Nov 27 14:33:36 2003]
Figure 5-15 shows an example.
Slika 5-15 pokazuje primjer.
[Thu Nov 27 14:34:50 2003]
You might believe that in your industry, market share gains lead to lower unit costs because higher volumes move your company down the learning curve faster.
Mogli biste vjerovati da u vašoj industriji, zarada od tržišnog udjela dovodi do nižih jediničnih troškova, jer veći opseg brže guraju vašu tvrtku niz krivulju učenja.
[Thu Nov 27 14:36:19 2003]
The top panel compresses this logic into a single causal link.
Gornja ploha sažima ovu logiku u jedinstvenu uzročnu vezu.
[Thu Nov 27 14:36:19 2003]
If your audience found that link confusing, you should disaggregate the diagram to show the steps of your reasoning in more detail, as shown in the bottom panel
Ako vaša publika smatra ovu vezu zbunjujućom, trebali biste rastaviti dijagram i detaljnije prikazati pojedine korake vašeg zaključka, kao što je prikazano u donjoj plohi
[Thu Nov 27 14:39:19 2003]
The simpler diagram then serves as a marker for the richer, underlying causal structure
Jednostavniji dijagram tada služi kao označitelj za bogatiju, temeljniju uzročnu strukturu
[Thu Nov 27 14:42:27 2003]
Short-term memory can hold 7 + 2 chunks of information at once.
Kratkoročna memorija može sadržavati 7 + 2 bloka podataka istodobno.
[Thu Nov 27 14:45:07 2003]
This puts a rather sharp limit on the effective size and complexity of a causal map.
To postavlja prilično oštru granicu na djelotvornu veličinu i složenost uzročne mape.
[Thu Nov 27 14:46:14 2003]
Presenting a complex causal map all at once makes it hard to see the loops, understand which are important, or understand how they generate the dynamics.
Predstavljanje složene uzročne mape otežava sagledavanje petlje, shvaćanje koje su petlje važne, ili razumijevanje načina na koji one stvaraju dinamiku.
[Thu Nov 27 14:47:06 2003]
Resist the temptation to put all the loops you and your clients have identified into a single comprehensive diagram.
Oduprite se kušnji da postavite sve petlje koje ste zajedno s vašim klijentima identificirali u jedan opsežan dijagram.
[Thu Nov 27 14:47:41 2003]
Such diagrams look impressive - My, what a lot of work must have gone into it!
Takvi dijagrami izgledaju dojmljivo - čini se kao da ste, uložili mnogo mnogo truda u njih!
[Thu Nov 27 14:48:04 2003]
How big and comprehensive your model must be!
Kako li je tek velik i sveobuhvatan vaš model!
[Thu Nov 27 14:48:59 2003]
- but are not effective in communicating with your audience.
- ali nisu učinkovite pri komunikaciji s vašom publikom.
[Thu Nov 27 14:48:59 2003]
A large, wall-filling diagram may be perfectly comprehensible to the person who drew it, but to the people with
Velik, ispunjavajući dijagram može biti savršeno shvatljiv osobi koja ga je sastavila, ali ljudima s
[Thu Nov 27 14:54:41 2003]
How then do you communicate the rich feedback structure of a system without oversimplifying?
Kako da onda priopćite bogatu strukturu povratne veze sustava bez pretjeranog pojednostavljivanja?
[Thu Nov 27 14:55:16 2003]
Build up your model in stages, with a series of smaller causal loop diagrams.
Gradite vaš model postepeno, s nizom manjih dijagrama uzročnih petlji.
[Thu Nov 27 14:56:16 2003]
Each diagram should correspond to one part of the dynamic story being told.
Svaki dijagram bi trebao odgovarati jednome dijelu dinamične priče koju prikazujete.
[Thu Nov 27 14:56:51 2003]
Few people can understand a complex causal diagram unless they have a chance to digest the pieces one at the time.
Malobrojni ljudi mogu razumjeti složen uzročni dijagram osim ukoliko oni imaju mogućnost da ga usvajaju dio po dio.
[Thu Nov 27 14:57:43 2003]
Develop a separate diagram for each important loop.
Izradite poseban dijagram za svaku važnu petlju.
[Thu Nov 27 14:59:49 2003]
These diagrams can have enough detail in them to show how the process actually operates.
Ovi dijagrami mogu sadržavati dovoljno detalja da bi pokazali kako proces zapravo funkcionira.
[Thu Nov 27 15:01:11 2003]
Then chunk the diagrams into a simpler, high-level overview to show how they interact with one another.
Zatim razdijelite dijagrame na jednostavniji, razrađeniji pregled da biste pokazali kako međusobno komuniciraju.
[Thu Nov 27 15:01:11 2003]
In presentations, build up your diagram piece by piece from the chunks (see sections 5.4 and 5.6 for examples)
U izlaganjima, povećavajte vaš dijagram dio po dio, sastavljajući komade dijagrama (vidjeti odlomke 5.4 i 5.6 radi primjera)
[Thu Nov 27 15:02:14 2003]
Make the Goals of Negative Loops Explicit
Istaknite Ciljeve Negativa Petalja izričitog
[Thu Nov 27 15:03:51 2003]
All negative feedback loops have goals.
Sve petlje negativne povratne veze imaju ciljeve.
[Thu Nov 27 15:04:14 2003]
Goals are the desired state of the system and all negative loops function by comparing the actual state to the goal, then initiating a corrective action in response to the discrepancy.
Ciljevi su željeno stanje sustava i sve negativne petlje funkcioniraju uspoređivanjem stvarnoga stanja i cilja, a zatim pokreću ispravljačko djelovanje kao odgovor na nepodudarnost.
[Thu Nov 27 15:04:22 2003]
Make the goals of your negative loops explicit.
Neka ciljevi vaših negativnih petlji budu istaknuti.
[Thu Nov 27 15:04:56 2003]
Figure 5-16 shows two examples.
Slika 5-16 prikazuje dva primjera.
[Thu Nov 27 15:06:05 2003]
The top panel shows a negative loop affecting the quality of a company's product:
Gornja ploha pokazuje negativnu petlju koja utječe na kakvoću proizvoda tvrtke:
[Thu Nov 27 15:06:48 2003]
the lower the quality, the more quality improvement programs will be started, and (presumably) the deficiencies in quality will be corrected.
što je niža kakvoća, pokrentu će se više programa za poboljšanje kvalitete, i (vjerojatno) nedostaci u kakvoći biti će ispravljeni.
[Thu Nov 27 15:08:05 2003]
Making goals explicit encourages people to ask how the goals are formed.
Isticanje ciljeva potiče ljude da pitaju kako su ciljevi formirani.
[Thu Nov 27 15:09:02 2003]
Goals can vary over time and respond to pressures in the environment.
Ciljevi mogu varirati tijekom vremena, i odgovarati na pritiske u svojem okruženju.
[Thu Nov 27 15:09:02 2003]
In the example, what determines the
U primjeru, ono što određuje
[Thu Nov 27 15:10:05 2003]
Human agency or natural processes can determine goals
Ljudska agencija ili prirodni procesi mogu odrediti ciljeve
[Thu Nov 27 15:19:13 2003]
Product Quality
Kvaliteta proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 15:19:29 2003]
Desired Product Quality
Željena kvaliteta proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 15:19:44 2003]
Quality Shortfall
Nedostatak kvalitete
[Thu Nov 27 15:19:44 2003]
Quality Improvement Programs
Programi za poboljšanje kvalitete
[Thu Nov 27 15:27:04 2003]
The CEO's edict?
Proglas CEO-a?
[Thu Nov 27 15:27:52 2003]
Benchmarking studies of competitor quality?
Uspoređivanje s kakvoćom najuspješnijeg konkurenta?
[Thu Nov 27 15:28:49 2003]
Customer input?
Informacije dobivene od klijenata?
[Thu Nov 27 15:30:12 2003]
The company's own past quality levels?
Stupanj kvalitete u prošlosti same tvrtke?
[Thu Nov 27 15:30:12 2003]
When the goal is explicit these questions are more likely to be asked and hypotheses about the answers can be quickly incorporated in the model.
Kada je cilj jasan, veća je vjerojatnost da će se postaviti ova pitanja, a pretpostavke o odgovorima brzo se mogu uvrstiti u model.
[Thu Nov 27 15:32:11 2003]
Making the goals of negative loops explicit is especially important when the loops capture human behavior.
Isticanje ciljeve negativnih petlji posebno je važno kada petlje obuhvaćaju ljudsko ponašanje.
[Thu Nov 27 15:34:00 2003]
The second example portrays the negative feedback by which a cup of coffee cools to room temperature.
Drugi primjer prikazuje negativnu povratnu vezu u kojoj se šalica kave hladi na sobnu temperaturu.
[Thu Nov 27 15:35:23 2003]
The cooling process stops when the two temperatures are equal.
Proces hlađenja prestaje kada se te dvije temperatura izjednače.
[Thu Nov 27 15:36:49 2003]
There are exceptions to the principle of showing the goals of negative loops.
Postoje iznimke u načelu prikazivanja ciljeva negativnih petlji.
[Thu Nov 27 15:37:11 2003]
Consider the death rate loop in Figure 5-1.
Razmotrite petlju smrtne stope na Slici 5-1.
[Thu Nov 27 15:37:34 2003]
The goal of the death rate loop is implicit (and equal to zero:
Cilj petlje smrtne stope je implicitan (i jednak nuli:
[Thu Nov 27 15:39:04 2003]
in the long run, we are all dead).
dugoročno gledano, svi ćemo biti mrtvi).
[Thu Nov 27 15:39:04 2003]
Your models should not explicitly portray the goal of the death loop or the goals of similar decay processes such as the depreciation of capital equipment
Vaši modeli ne bi trebali izričito prikazivati cilj petlje smrtne stope ili ciljevi sličnih procesa propadanja, kao što je, naprimjer, pad vrijednosti investicijske opreme
[Thu Nov 27 15:44:08 2003]
There may be delays caused by reporting and measurement processes.
Mogu postojati odlaganja uzrokovana procesima izvještavanja i mjerenja.
[Thu Nov 27 15:47:37 2003]
There may be noise, measurement error, bias, and distortions.
Mogu se pojaviti šumovi, greške u mjerenju, predrasude, i iskrivljenja.
[Thu Nov 27 15:49:00 2003]
In the quality management example shown in Figure 5-16, there may be significant delays in assessing quality and in changing management's opinion about product quality.
U primjeru kvalitete upravljanja prikazanom na Slici 5-16, može doći do značajnih odlaganja u procjenjivanju kvalitete i u promjeni mišljenja rukovodstva o kvaliteti proizvoda.
[Thu Nov 27 15:50:18 2003]
Separating perceived and actual conditions helps prompt questions such as How long does it take to measure quality?
Razdvajanje opaženih i stvarnih stanja pomaže u postavljanju pitanja poput: Koliko je vremena potrebno da bi se izmjerila kvaliteta?
[Thu Nov 27 15:50:48 2003]
To change management's opinion about quality even after the data are available?
Ili da bi se promijenilo mišljenje rukovodstva o kvaliteti, čak i nakon što podaci postanu dostupni?
[Thu Nov 27 15:51:04 2003]
To implement a quality improvement program?
Ili da se primijeni kvalitetan program poboljšanja?
[Thu Nov 27 15:53:45 2003]
To realize results?
Da se ostvare rezultati?
[Thu Nov 27 15:54:59 2003]
Besides the long time delays, there may be bias in the reporting system causing reported quality to differ systematically from quality as experienced by the customer.
Osim ovih dugih vremenskih odlaganja, mogla bi postojati pristranost u sustavu izvještavanja, što bi uzrokovalo da se prijavljena kvaliteta sustavno razlikuje od kvalitete koju doživljavaju klijenti.
[Thu Nov 27 15:57:04 2003]
Customers don't file warranty claims for all problems or report all defects to their sales representative.
Klijenti ne prijavljuju sve probleme, niti izvještavaju o svim nedostacima svoje trgovačke predstavnike.
[Thu Nov 27 15:59:21 2003]
Sales and repair personnel may not report all customer complaints to the home office.
Osoblje zaposleno u prodaji i remontu možda ne može obavijestiti matični ured poduzeća o svim pritužbama kupaca.
[Thu Nov 27 16:00:54 2003]
There may be bias in senior management's quality assessment because subordinates filter the information that reaches them.
Možda postoji pristranost u procjeni kvalitete starijeg rukovodstva, jer podređeni filtriraju podatke koji dopru do njih.
[Thu Nov 27 16:01:38 2003]
Some auto executives are provided with the latest models for their personal use;
Neki upravitelji u automobilskoj induistriji dobivaju na korištenje najnovije modele automobila;
[Thu Nov 27 16:04:48 2003]
these cars are carefully selected and frequently serviced by company mechanics.
ti automobili su pažljivo odabrani i često ih servisiraju automehaničati dotične tvrtke.
[Thu Nov 27 16:05:47 2003]
Their impression of the quality of their firm 's cars will be higher than that of the average customer who buys off the lot and keeps the car for 10 years.
Dojam o kvaliteti automobila njihove vlastite proizvodnje biti će bolji od dojma prosječnog klijenta koji je automobil kupiou dućanu i služi se njime tijekom 10 godina.
[Thu Nov 27 16:08:32 2003]
The diagram might be revised as shown in Figure 5-17.
Dijagram se može preraditi na način prikazan na Slici 5-17.
[Thu Nov 27 16:08:32 2003]
The diagram now shows how management, despite good intentions, can come to hold a grossly exaggerated view of product quality, and you are well positioned for a discussion of ways to shorten the delays and eliminate the distortions
Dijagram sada pokazuje kako rukovodstvo, unatoč dobrim namjerama, može steći nadasve pretjerano viđenje kvalitete proizvoda, i biti ćete u dobroj poziciji za raspravu o načinima skraćivanja odlaganja i otklanjanja iskrivljenih prikaza
[Thu Nov 27 16:13:24 2003]
Bias in Reporting System
Pristranost u sustavu izvještavanja
[Thu Nov 27 16:13:33 2003]
Reported Product Quality
Prijavljena kvaliteta proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 16:14:13 2003]
Delay
Odlaganje
[Thu Nov 27 16:15:13 2003]
Management Bias Toward High Quality
Pristranost rukovodstva prema visokoj kvaliteti vlastitih proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 16:15:29 2003]
Management Perception of Product Quality
Predodžba rukovodstva o kvaliteti proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 16:15:42 2003]
Desired Product Quality
Željena kvaliteta proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 16:15:49 2003]
Quality Shortfall
Nedostatak kvalitete
[Thu Nov 27 16:16:09 2003]
Delay
Odlaganje
[Thu Nov 27 16:16:17 2003]
Quality Improvement Programs
Programi za poboljšanje kvalitete
[Thu Nov 27 16:16:26 2003]
Delay
Odlaganje
[Thu Nov 27 16:16:36 2003]
Product Quality
Kvaliteta proizvoda
[Thu Nov 27 16:16:36 2003]
Delay
Odlaganje
[Thu Nov 27 16:20:21 2003]
Causal diagrams are a powerful tool to map the feedback structure of complex systems.
Uzročni dijagrami su moćan alat za skiciranje strukture povratnih veza složenih sustava.
[Thu Nov 27 16:22:08 2003]
Causal diagrams can be helpful to you in the early phases of a project, when you need to work with the client team to elicit and capture their mental mode's.
Uzročni dijagrami vam mogu pomoći u ranoj fazi projekta, kada morate raditi s ekipom klijenata da biste potaknuli i primili njihov način razmišljanja.
[Thu Nov 27 16:23:35 2003]
They are helpful in presenting the results of your modeling work in a nontechnical fashion.
Oni pomažu u prikazivanju rezultata vaših poslova oblikovanja na netehnički način.
[Thu Nov 27 16:24:05 2003]
To be effective, you should follow the rules for causal diagrams, including selection of variable names, layout, and assignment of link and loop polarities.
Radi učinkovitosti, trebate slijediti pravila uzročnih dijagrama, uključujući odabir naziva varijabli, prikaz, i dodjeljivanje polariteta veze i petlje.
[Thu Nov 27 16:24:32 2003]
It is best to build up diagrams in steps:
Najbolje je graditi dijagrame u koracima:
[Thu Nov 27 16:25:13 2003]
resist the urge to create a single, comprehensive diagram.
oduprite se porivu da stvorite jedinstven, sveobuhvatan dijagram.
[Thu Nov 27 16:28:40 2003]
As in learning to read music, practice is everything.
Kao i pri učenju nota, i ovdje sve leži u vježbi.
[Thu Nov 27 16:28:40 2003]
Develop your skills in mapping the feedback structure of systems by sketching causal diagrams to capture the feedbacks you recognize as you read the newspaper or the great works of literature
Razvijte vašu vještinu skiciranja strukture sustava povratne veze crtajući uzročne dijagrame, jer tako ćete prepoznati povratne informacije kao kada čitate novine ili velika književna djela
